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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 8/31/23

Dec Wheat - Steady


Dec Corn - Steady to 1 Higher


Nov Beans - Steady to 1 Lower


The US Drought monitor is released every week on Thursday, but it is lagging and therefore, the data is relevant from Tuesday to Tuesday every week. We knew it would show increased drought coverage today in the corn belt because of the dry conditions with a period of very hot, over the last 2 weeks.


D3-D4 is the 2nd to most severe of drought conditions, and this category expanded in parts of Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota and Wisconsin from this week to last week.


Take a look at the maps comparing both weeks here. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx


Very little rainfall during the last 2 weeks, upcoming 90's and 100's this weekend, and hotter than average temperatures out to September 14th with perhaps some rain in the north after this weekend per NOAA forecasts, probably doesn't equal crops finishing well.


On Tuesday of next week, crop ratings should decrease more than they did this week.


You know we are expecting another leg higher in November Soybeans, and rallies in December Corn and perhaps wheat. Because of these poor grain and pod filling conditions, I believe the bean and corn markets will be forced to increase price at least somewhat and maybe more.


While I attempt to pinpoint market movements and support from day to day on my reports, we all shouldn't lose the forest for the trees.


A good friend of mine who has extensive experience from many facets of the grain business has a saying. I don't think he will mind me paraphrasing him: 'not everyone gets to participate in market moves'.


This happens for various reasons, but I believe the main one is lack of patience.


It appears in November Beans, I miscounted Elliot. The high marked on Sunday night/Monday from the low marked on August 8th is a complete 1-2-3-4-5 impulse wave.


I was counting too many sub-waves and sure enough, the simplest answer is usually the correct one. The blue acceleration lines from yesterday came into play today - the top one specifically. Today's close and low found the intersection of the acceleration and supply/demand line.


Take a look at today's 2 hour November Bean chart with the correct count. Again, August 8th completed Big2, and 1 within Big3 was completed Monday and we have been correcting from 1 all week. 3 should begin shortly. Tomorrow is the new month and quarter.


You will see that December Wheat (continuation) tested the close of Monday's bar (before the contract roll) today and closed near the middle of the range.


December Corn tested the lower upsloping blue line today, but didn't violate it. The corn market displayed some volatility today for the 1st time in a few trading days, probably signaling a crescendo in the battle between bears & bulls.


Here is today's Dec Corn intraday chart.


It appears that crude oil has confirmed the next leg higher that is targeting the old high near 85, then 90, and finally, 94. You will see the old high to the left around 90. Check out the new October Crude chart.




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