Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 6/21/22
July Wheat - 11 to 14 Higher
July Corn - Steady
Dec Corn - 1 to 2 Higher
July Soybeans - Steady
Nov Soybeans - Steady to 1 Higher
July Corn fell through the 780 support on a less bullish forecast and found secondary support between 760 (closing) and 752 (touch). I expect a test of Friday's high around 800.
Dec Corn re-tested weekly support around 700. And, despite flat price weakness in Corn overall, the CN/CZ bull spread kept working - up about + 5.5 on the day. This is bullish corn in the nearterm.
July Soybeans tested a daily and weekly supply/demand balance line that comes in around 1678 today. Friday's swing high was 38 days since the cycle low on May 9th. Today marks 41 days since that last low. I am not sure about which is more significant at this point because July Corn's cycle is 41 days.
Corn's May 9th cycle low was 41 days since the Mar 29th low. July Beans previous cycle low was on April 4 - 2 trading days later - this is the reason for the 38/41 day discrepancy between corn and beans.
We will know shortly which swing point (high or low) C/B are adhering to - I am going with 41 in July Beans. That is the feeling I had last Friday as well.
Please look at the bean continuation chart going back to Jan 28th - follow the supply/demand line back in time and notice the 36-38 day cycle points. Also the last 5 bars (right side) on the July soybean chart is not a trend - it is indecisiveness.
November beans penetrated down through the weekly breakout by 20 cents and only about 5 cents through a weekly uptrend line. It matters more - how long the market remains below these price points than the violation itself. As we have seen lines are crossed many times on these charts only to have the market abruptly reverse course.
Wheat simply faked me out. The Sep contract filled a gap (downside) from Apr 4 at 1002 on the left of the chart and July came within 1.5 cents (6 ticks) from testing the Mar 29th low at 972. We have to wait and see that these places are supportive - should know this week.
The buyers in the stock market showed up today across the broader market. I expect this new trend up to continue in the nearterm. This will help with risk on money (buyers) in the grains. (The sky is no longer falling).
Aug Crude Oil update: I expect price to rally to 117 in the next couple of days. The target is $1 more because the trendline is upsloping with time.