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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 5/16/23

July Wheat - Steady to 1 Higher

July Corn - Steady

July Beans - 1 Higher

While July Corn and Wheat did not make new lows today, as expected, the bottom fell out of the Soybean market. There is an unfilled gap in July Soybeans that I just plain forgot about.

Sometimes I am too zoomed in on the charts, looking at the intraday charts and become stuck in the trees and forget about the forest. July Corn had already completed the business of filling it's gap from last summer, but this business was incomplete in beans.

As a reminder, Alan Bonifas previously stated that corn and beans would carve out a seasonal low in the latter half of May, and that this low would be lower than the March swing low.

The corn and back month bean contracts had all fulfilled this forecast already, but July Soybeans had not made a lower low, yet, until today!

This lower gap was acting like a magnet pulling the sellers out of the woodwork. Consequently, July Beans had a massive selloff of about 40 cents and partially filled the gap between 1362.75 and 1355.75 and also finally fulfilling this detail of Alan's vision.

The partial filling of last summer's gap may be enough selling to complete this business - open gaps don't always have to totally be filled to qualify as completed business. This same gap from last summer is about 6 cents lower on the continuation soybean chart, so there is some chance of bean selling to the 1349 level. We don't know if today's low will hold, but tomorrow likely gives us more clues.

Either way, we feel confident that July Beans is in the process of printing a solid low/bottom for a rally to begin. Check out the July Bean daily chart.


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