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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 5/15/23

July Wheat - 1 to 2 Higher

July Corn - Steady to 1 Lower

July Beans - Steady

There is an old congestion area (range of back and forth trading) on the December Corn chart from December of 2021. It appears that Dec Corn currently needed to trade into this range to fulfill some sort of supply/demand balance/symmetry.

You will see on the chart that this range runs roughly from 500 to 515. Today's low was 503.25, which was a new low for the move, and then the bulls ran price up to 515.75.

Even though today was not really a key reversal, Dec Corn closed above Friday's body, which is bullish. This could be the low for the December contract (70%) or it may make 1 more low (by only a few cents or ticks).

Check out today's December corn daily charts looking back to the dates in December of 2021. I'm giving you a zoomed in chart as well, so you can see the last few days clearly.

Here is the zoomed in December Corn chart.

Wheat led all grains today, with the July contract closing up +27.50. After building out more of the right shoulder on Friday, the inverted head and shoulders is confirmed today (90%) and the neckline (breakout point) is just about 14 cents up above.

The upside target will be about 733. I have been told that even though the bigger fundamental story may be in Kansas City Wheat, the funds play in Chicago because this one has more liquidity. The 2 wheats will go up together, seesawing a bit depending on the day.

Here is today's December Wheat 8 hour (3 bars per day) chart. You will notice how the inverted head & shoulders target is also in the vicinity of some old swing highs on the left. This is not a coincidence, rather it's a part of the balancing/symmetry that I discuss - this is how it works.

While the right shoulder was being built out, the percentage certainty that it was a solid bottom being marked might have only been 65-75%.

The 4 hour July Corn chart has morphed from an inverted head & shoulders to a double bottom or big W. The minimum upside target from this base is 631. Then the next target higher is the swing high to the left at 647. I don't think any new lows need to be printed (about 80%). Check out the chart.

By the way, head & shoulders and "W" bottoms give the same price targets. The main point here is that the height (y-axis/price scale) is the same in both patterns and the other takeaway is that they are simply bottoming formations for a rally to spring.

The 2 hour July Soybeans are marking a "W" formation, as well, which has a height of 58 cents and projects to 1505. There is a swing high to the top left near the target at 1500 - by design - A bump that will create a future bump.

July Beans may need to make 1 lower low to test the March 23rd low at 1383.75? This is 50/50, but the result will be the same - a bottoming formation which projects an upside price target. Check out the chart.

I am using July Soymeal for a technical analysis fact - that bumps/highs to the left create bumps to the right. Compare the most recent swing high (9 bars ago) with today's corrective bar.


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