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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 12/14/22

March Wheat - Steady to 1 Lower


March Corn - 1 to 3 Higher


March Beans - 1 to 2 Higher


From yesterday's March Wheat comments: "If last weeks low of 723.50 is a good solid low on the March Wheat charts, the 740 price level should hold tomorrow."


Today March Wheat continued to backfill/correct. As expected, the fund buyers were waiting around the 740 level to buy more. One time overnight and one other time in this morning's trade price briefly poked down below 740, then it rallied to close at 749.25.


When I say "good solid low" I mean a swing low on the weekly charts, so sometimes it takes a few trading days to know for sure. As you will see on the March Wheat intraday chart here, the next most logical move is a rally up to the trendline moving across the swing highs - that would be near 775+/- 5 cents.


I missed the March Corn support by a couple of cents as it traded down to 746.75 then it bought back up to close at 651, down 2.50 cents on the session. We should see some more buying this week. If corn can move up through the 660 level and find support there, we should see a move up to about 670. Here is today's March Corn chart.


The March Soybean contract is creeping up towards the resistance between 1508 and the gap at 1528. Today, beans marked an inside/energy building day - today's high and low is smaller than yesterday's range. We could trade up to 1497 (last Friday's high) tomorrow and even 1508 this week. 50/50 on the 1508 as this area may be reserved for a Sunday night opening.


I am interested in seeing how beans behave when it moves up to this 1508++ area - it could be both a resistance area which stops & reverses price temporarily and an acceleration upward area eventually. Here is the updated daily March Bean chart.


March Bean Meal resumed it's uptrend today and March Soyoil had a small consolidation day. Check out the Meal daily continuation chart (currently still Jan).


Jan Crude Oil Update: Continued strength in oil today, up +2.03 to 77.42. This trend is confirmed up on the daily chart (3 straight up days). It's headed up to test the 85 area eventually. Tomorrow, it either continues up from today or backfills to the 75 area first, as you will see on the updated Crude Oil chart. After Crude clears 78, the left is clean and straight so nothing to provide resistance until 83 - 85, as you will see on the updated Crude Oil chart.


.For those of you who are interested in the S&P Elliot Wave analysis, I have a somewhat zoomed in chart with the new legs labeled. The main point to all this is that impulses (primary trend) are going to be at least 5 waves (3 legs up, 2 down), and corrective waves are usually 3 waves 2 legs down (a-b-c) - 2 legged correction.


I believe you'll be able to see what I'm talking about on the chart. I think the S&P just finished a 2 legged correction down from the high it made yesterday morning. Therefore the most probable next order of business is to expect a rally that makes new highs and has at least 3 up legs(#3). We just completed a middle order #1 and #2 legs. See what you think.





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