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Market Commentary 03/14/2022

Jon Scheve with weekly market commentary made on March, 11, 2022

For the week:

  • July corn finished 7 cents higher than last week

  • December corn finished the week 26 cents higher

  • November beans finished 41 cents higher than the previous week

  • Wheat was down $1.00 from its close last Friday

Fear drove the wheat market to a record high of $13.63 on Tuesday before it dropped over $2.50 per bushel the next few days. July wheat now seems to be trading a wide range between $10 and $11. Beans continue to see estimates of a smaller South American crop being harvest which keeps bean values supported for new crop moving forward. July corn looks to continue trading between $7.00 and $7.50 while new crop December futures should be in a range of $6.25 to $6.75 until the market becomes more confident of world supply and demand potential. The major concerns for the corn market are if Ukrainian farmers will get a corn crop planted in the next couple of months and if the old crop still sitting in the bins is exported this summer. Late in the week the Ukrainian government stressed how important it will be to get the new crop planted this year, but the logistics of planting a crop while fighting a war would seem to be extremely difficult. This week’s USDA report showed corn export and ethanol demand increases and many in the trade expect those estimates to continue increasing in future reports. Add to that the increased risk of La Nina conditions lasting into the summer months, which increases the chance of dryer conditions in the western corn belt, and we come away with some very bullish scenarios for this market down the road. However, it’s important to consider that there is feed demand destruction happening both here and around the world at these high prices. Additionally, we saw the spread of bird flu in the US the past couple of weeks which has been largely dismissed by the market so far. There have been rumblings in the fuel verses food debate lately and if any changes to the current mandates were to occur it could significantly alter the demand picture. A bumpy ride likely continues for these markets.

Jon Scheve Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC

9358 Oak Ave Waconia, MN 55387


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