Note: This article is available for our annual subscribers to read here or you can buy it separately apart from subscription
 
This time of year (winter), generally speaking, old crop prices move more than new crop prices. Old crop prices are sensitive to current events and Southern Hemisphere S&D factors, whereas the new crop availability is so far in the future with so many production and demand variables, that news in December to mid-March impacts new crop prices very little compared to old crop. Thus, on down days, old crop will lose more than new crop prices and on up days, old crop prices will gain more than new crop.