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Weekly Summary & Recommendations 1/25/23

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat for past week Wednesday to Tuesday.



Corn


Corn situation after the close Tuesday, January 24, 2023:

March corn settled on Tuesday at $6.77, down $0.08¼ for the week.

December corn settled on Tuesday at $5.91¼.

Price change Tuesday to Tuesday: down $0.12½.

The past week’s high was $6.06, the low was $5.83¾.

Contract high is $6.79¼ made Apr 27, 2022;

Contract low is $3.97½ made Dec 15, 2020;

Range is $2.81¾.

Yesterday’s closing price is:

$0.88 below the contract high;

$1.93¾ above the contract low.

USDA’s 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 34, world: 93

USDA’s 2022 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 33, world: 93

Seasonal Trend is up.

Fundamentals are bullish.

Technical Situation is up.

Price Above Breakeven? Yes.

Conclusion: Lock-in the HTA on all remaining 2022 corn when March trades to $7.24.

Given what we know now, expect to price with HTA Dec 2023 in the $7.00 to $7.60 range.

We expect December 2023 corn to trade to $7.60 in May. Be patient.

We previously recommended on May 13, 2022 pricing all 2021 and 2022 crop corn your nerves could stand when December corn was $7.50+. All those orders were filled by May 16th.



This week's Bullish Consensus

And Seasonal Chart


 

Soybeans


Soybean situation after the close Tuesday, January 24, 2023:

March soybeans settled on Tuesday at $14.88½, down $0.51¼ for the week.


November Soybeans settled on Tuesday at $13.38.

Price change Tuesday to Tuesday: down $0.55¼.

This past week’s high was $13.96¼, the low was $13.30¼.


Contract high is $14.48¼ on Apr 29, 2022;

Contract low is $8.87¼ on Aug 7, 2020;

Range is $5.61.

Tuesday’s closing price is:

$1.10¼ below the contract high;

$4.50¾ above the contract low.

USDA’s 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 22, world: 99

USDA’s 2022 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 18, world: 100

Seasonal Trend is down for two weeks then higher into spring.

Fundamentals are bullish, very bullish long term.

Technical Situation is uptrend.

Price Above Breakeven? Yes.

Conclusion: Sell old crop March HTA $15.72 (be patient and it will come).

We expect November 23 beans to trade to the $16 area in June. Be patient.



This week's Bullish Consensus


And Seasonal Chart


 

Wheat


Wheat situation after the close Tuesday, January 24, 2023:

July 2023 KC Hard Red Winter Wheat settled on Tuesday at $8.22¼.

Price change Tuesday to Tuesday: down $0.20¾.

Last week’s high was $8.52½, the low was $8.01½.

Contract high is $12.10 on May 19, 2022;

Contract low is $4.94 on August 4, 2020;

Range is $7.16.

Tuesday closing price is:

$3.87¾ below the contract high;

$3.28¼ above the contract low.

USDA’s 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 135, world: 127

USDA’s 2022 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 109, world: 124


The 30 year seasonal trend is down until September.

Fundamentals are very bullish.

Technical Situation is up.

Price Above Breakeven? Probably yes.

Conclusion: Two factors say do not sell, two say sell; the tie breaker is profitability. If the current price is profitable for you on old and/or new crop, sell cash old crop and HTA new crop. If the price goes substantially higher, be ready to buy put options. If not profitable now, do not sell.

We previously recommended pricing 2023 KC wheat at $8.35, filled March 21st.



This week's Bullish Consensus


And Seasonal Chart


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