top of page
If You Haven't, Try Our Daily Grain Market Reports FREE for 30 Days!

Weekly Summary & Recommendations 05/11/2022

Summary & recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat this week.



Corn


Corn Situation after the close 10 May 2022

Even though we expected old crop futures to exceed $7, we recommended since June 29, 2021 pricing 2021 corn when nearby futures were $6.22 to eliminate risk and prepare to buy puts when high is made this spring or early summer to make the money on the way down not made on the way up. May corn traded above $6.22 on January 25, 2022.

July 2022 corn made its high April 29th at $8.24½ and settled yesterday at $7.75¼.

December corn settled at $7.19 on Tuesday, 10 May 2022

Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: down 16¼ cents

24-month high $7.57 made 29 April 2022, $1.19 above the Dec corn 2021 high

24-month low $3.68¾ made June 26, 2020

24-month range is $3.88

Yesterday’s closing price is:

36 cents below the 24-month high

$3.50 above the 24-month low

USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 30, world: 94

USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 35, world: 93

Seasonal Trend is up into third week of June

Fundamentals are Bullish

Technical Situation is Bullish

Price Above Breakeven? Yes

Conclusion: Don’t sell

The past week’s low was $7.03¾; the high was $7.43¼


May 11th, 2022, Bullish Consensus:

Corn

Grainstats

Wright on the Market

bullish

61%

52%

neutral

16%

26%

bearish

16%

22%

no opinion

7%

0%


 

Soybeans


Soybean Situation After the Close Tuesday, May 10th, 2022:

We recommended pricing 2021 beans March futures at $14.78 to establish a floor even though we expected the old crop high to be early summer over $17.00 at which time, we recommend you buy puts to make money on the way down not made on the way up.

Update: May soybeans traded to $17.59¼ on 24 February, exceeding the 2020 old crop high by 91¾ cents. July beans settled at $15.92¼ on May 10th.

November Soybeans Settled May 10th at $14.54¾.

Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: down 23½ cents.

24 Month high $15.55 on 24 February 2022, 75 cents above the November 2021 high

24 Month low $8.81 on 7 August 2020

24 Month Range is $6.74

Tuesday’s closing price is:

$1.00¼ below the 24-month high

$5.73¾ above the 24-month low

USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 21, world: 104

USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 21, world: 90

Seasonal Trend is up

Fundamentals are Bullish

Technical Situation is Bullish

Price Above Breakeven? Yes

Conclusion: Don’t Sell

This past week’s low was $14.38¼, high was $15.06¾

This week's Bullish Consensus:

Soybeans

Grainstats

Wright on the Market

bullish

47%

48%

neutral

13%

35%

bearish

33%

17%

no opinion

7%

0%


 

Wheat


Wheat Situation After the Close Tuesday, May 10th, 2022:

We recommended pricing July 2022 soft red winter wheat at $7.97 in January. It settled at $10.92¾ on May 10th, 2022.

On April 7th, 2022, we recommended buying September $9.00 CBOT Puts at 30 or better. Filled. The premium of the $9.00 put yesterday’s close was 19 cents.

On Monday, March 7, 2022 we recommended pricing July KC hard red winter wheat at the market on the opening, which was $12.08. The high that day was $12.59.

July KC Hard Red Winter Wheat settled Tuesday at $11.75.

Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 82¼ cents

24-month high: $12.59 March 7, 2022

24-month low $5.03¼ August 24th, 2020

24-month range is $7.55¾

Friday’s closing price is:

84 cents below the 24-month high

$6.71¾ above the 24-month low

2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 146, world: 136

2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 130, world: 128

Seasonal Trend is down

Fundamental outlook is bearish

Technical Situation is sideways

Price Above Breakeven? Yes.

Conclusion: Sell 2022 HTA July at $12.08

Sell 2023 HTA KC July wheat $8.35, filled March 21st; settled at $10.99½ yesterday.

Last week’s low July 2022 was $10.91½; the high was $12.00


This week's Bullish Consensus:

Wheat

Grainstats

Wright on the Market

bullish

62%

44%

neutral

17%

30%

bearish

16%

13%

no opinion

5%

13%


bottom of page