Corn, Soybeans and Wheat weekly analysis.
Corn
Corn Situation after the close 29 March 2022
Even though we expected old crop futures to exceed $7, we recommended since June 29, 2021 pricing 2021 corn when nearby futures were $6.22 to eliminate risk and prepare to buy puts when high is made this spring or early summer to make the money on the way down not made on the way up.
May 2022 corn made a new high on March 4th at $7.82¾ and settled yesterday at $7.26¼.
December corn settled at $6.52¾ on Tues 29th of March 2022
Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: down 18¾ cents
20-month high $6.80½ made 23 March 2022, 42½ cents above the Dec corn 2021 high
20-month low $3.68¾ made June 26, 2020
20-month range is $3.11¾
Yesterday’s closing price is:
29¼ cents below the 20-month high
$2.82¼ above the 20-month low
USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 30, world: 93
USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 35, world: 92
Seasonal Trend is up into third week of June
Fundamentals are Bullish
Technical Situation is Bullish
Price Above Breakeven? Yes
Conclusion: Don’t sell
The past week’s low was $6.31; the high was $6.80½
March 29th, 2022, Bullish Consensus:
Corn | Grainstats | Wright on the Market |
bullish | 50% | 77% |
neutral | 21% | 20% |
bearish | 25% | 3% |
no opinion | 4% | 0% |
Soybeans
Note: USDA announced this morning the sale of 128,000 mts of new crop soybeans to Mexico.
Soybean Situation After the Close Tuesday, March 29, 2022:
We recommended pricing 2021 beans March futures at $14.78 to establish a floor even though we expected the old crop high to be early summer over $17.00 at which time, we recommend you buy puts to make money on the way down not made on the way up.
Update: May soybeans traded to $17.59¼ on 24 February, exceeding the 2020 old crop high by 91¾ cents. May beans settled at $16.43 on March 29th.
November Soybeans Settled at $14.48½ yesterday.
Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: down 49½ cents.
18-month high $15.55 on 24 February 2022, 75 cents above the November 2021 high
18-month low $8.81 on 7 August 2020
18 Month Range is $6.74
Tuesday’s closing price is:
$1.06½ below the 18-month high
$5.67½ above the 18-month low
USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 21, world: 103
USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 24, world: 90
Seasonal Trend is up
Fundamentals are Bullish
Technical Situation is Bullish
Price Above Breakeven? Yes
Conclusion: Don’t Sell
This past week’s low was $14.25¾, high was $15.20¼
This week's Bullish Consensus:
Soybeans | Grainstats | Wright on the Market |
bullish | 37% | 71% |
neutral | 32% | 23% |
bearish | 27% | 6% |
no opinion | 4% | 0% |
Wheat
Wheat Situation After the Close Tuesday, March 29, 2022:
We recommended pricing July 2022 soft red winter wheat at $7.97 in January. It settled at $10.09¼ on March 29th, 2022.
On Monday, March 7, 2022 we recommended pricing July KC hard red winter wheat at the market on the opening, which was $12.08. The high that day was $12.59.
July KC Hard Red Winter Wheat settled Tuesday at $10.24¼.
Price Change Tuesday to Friday: down 85¾ cents
19-month high: $12.59 March 7, 2022
19-month low $5.03¼ August 24th, 2020
19-month range is $7.55¾
Friday’s closing price is:
$2.34¾ below the 19-month high
$5.21 above the 19-month low
2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 146, world: 135
2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 123, world: 130
Seasonal Trend is down
Fundamentals bullish if it does not rain in USA & Black Sea War
continues for three months, neither of which is likely
Technical Situation is down
Price Above Breakeven? Yes.
Conclusion: Sell 2022 HTA July at $12.08
Sell 2023 HTA KC July wheat $8.35, filled March 21st; settled at $8.74¾ yesterday.
Last week’s low July 2022 was $9.93¼; the high was $11.33½
This week's Bullish Consensus:
Wheat | Grainstats | Wright on the Market |
bullish | 40% | 42% |
neutral | 26% | 43% |
bearish | 31% | 9% |
no opinion | 3% | 6% |
