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Weekly Summary & Recommendations 03/31/2022

Corn, Soybeans and Wheat weekly analysis.


 

Corn


Corn Situation after the close 29 March 2022

Even though we expected old crop futures to exceed $7, we recommended since June 29, 2021 pricing 2021 corn when nearby futures were $6.22 to eliminate risk and prepare to buy puts when high is made this spring or early summer to make the money on the way down not made on the way up.

May 2022 corn made a new high on March 4th at $7.82¾ and settled yesterday at $7.26¼.

December corn settled at $6.52¾ on Tues 29th of March 2022

Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: down 18¾ cents

20-month high $6.80½ made 23 March 2022, 42½ cents above the Dec corn 2021 high

20-month low $3.68¾ made June 26, 2020

20-month range is $3.11¾


Yesterday’s closing price is:

29¼ cents below the 20-month high

$2.82¼ above the 20-month low

USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 30, world: 93

USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 35, world: 92


Seasonal Trend is up into third week of June

Fundamentals are Bullish

Technical Situation is Bullish

Price Above Breakeven? Yes

Conclusion: Don’t sell


The past week’s low was $6.31; the high was $6.80½


March 29th, 2022, Bullish Consensus:

Corn

Grainstats

Wright on the Market

bullish

50%

77%

neutral

21%

20%

bearish

25%

3%

no opinion

4%

0%



 

Soybeans


Note: USDA announced this morning the sale of 128,000 mts of new crop soybeans to Mexico.

Soybean Situation After the Close Tuesday, March 29, 2022:

We recommended pricing 2021 beans March futures at $14.78 to establish a floor even though we expected the old crop high to be early summer over $17.00 at which time, we recommend you buy puts to make money on the way down not made on the way up.

Update: May soybeans traded to $17.59¼ on 24 February, exceeding the 2020 old crop high by 91¾ cents. May beans settled at $16.43 on March 29th.

November Soybeans Settled at $14.48½ yesterday.

Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: down 49½ cents.

18-month high $15.55 on 24 February 2022, 75 cents above the November 2021 high

18-month low $8.81 on 7 August 2020

18 Month Range is $6.74


Tuesday’s closing price is:

$1.06½ below the 18-month high

$5.67½ above the 18-month low

USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 21, world: 103

USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 24, world: 90


Seasonal Trend is up

Fundamentals are Bullish

Technical Situation is Bullish

Price Above Breakeven? Yes

Conclusion: Don’t Sell


This past week’s low was $14.25¾, high was $15.20¼

This week's Bullish Consensus:

Soybeans

Grainstats

Wright on the Market

bullish

37%

71%

neutral

32%

23%

bearish

27%

6%

no opinion

4%

0%



 

Wheat


Wheat Situation After the Close Tuesday, March 29, 2022:

We recommended pricing July 2022 soft red winter wheat at $7.97 in January. It settled at $10.09¼ on March 29th, 2022.

On Monday, March 7, 2022 we recommended pricing July KC hard red winter wheat at the market on the opening, which was $12.08. The high that day was $12.59.

July KC Hard Red Winter Wheat settled Tuesday at $10.24¼.

Price Change Tuesday to Friday: down 85¾ cents

19-month high: $12.59 March 7, 2022

19-month low $5.03¼ August 24th, 2020

19-month range is $7.55¾

Friday’s closing price is:

$2.34¾ below the 19-month high

$5.21 above the 19-month low

2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 146, world: 135

2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 123, world: 130


Seasonal Trend is down

Fundamentals bullish if it does not rain in USA & Black Sea War

continues for three months, neither of which is likely

Technical Situation is down

Price Above Breakeven? Yes.

Conclusion: Sell 2022 HTA July at $12.08

Sell 2023 HTA KC July wheat $8.35, filled March 21st; settled at $8.74¾ yesterday.


Last week’s low July 2022 was $9.93¼; the high was $11.33½


This week's Bullish Consensus:

Wheat

Grainstats

Wright on the Market

bullish

40%

42%

neutral

26%

43%

bearish

31%

9%

no opinion

3%

6%