Weekly Summary & Recommendations 01/26/2022
Corn Situation After the Close Tuesday, January 25th, 2022:
March Corn Settled Yesterday at $6.20
Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 20¾ cents
19-month high $6.40½ May 7, 2021
19-month low $3.67 June 26, 2020
19-month range is $2.73½
Yesterday’s closing price is:
20¼ cents below the 19-month high
$2.53¼ above the 19-month low
USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 30, world: 94
USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 38, world: 92
Seasonal Trend is Up
Fundamentals are Bullish
Technical Situation is Bullish
Price Above Breakeven? Yes
Conclusion: If you follow these recommendations, you sold March corn above $6.22 yesterday; be ready to buy puts in the spring... and no, we do not think the high has been made yet. But you have $6.22 HTA locked-in and puts will catch the rest if prices continue higher into the spring
The past week’s low was $6.00; high was $6.31
This week's Bullish Consensus:
57% bullish
13% bearish
28% neutral
2% no opinion
Next week, we will shift to new Crop December corn
Soybean Situation After the Close Tuesday, January 25th, 2022:
March Soybeans Settled at $14.07¼.
Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 46 cents
19-month high $14.455 June 7, 2021
19-month low $8.95 August 24, 2020
19 Month Range is $5.50½
Tuesday’s closing price is:
38¼ cents below the 19-month high
$5.12¼ above the 19-month low
USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 21, world: 100
USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 29, world: 93
Seasonal Trend is down until Feb 10th then into 2nd week in July
Fundamentals are Bullish
Technical Situation sideways short term, long term bullish
Price Above Breakeven? Yes
Conclusion: Sell when March trades to $14.78, one cent under the January contract high
This past week’s low was $13.63½, high was $14.29½
This week's Bullish Consensus:
49% bullish
15% bearish
31% neutral
5% no opinion
Wheat Situation After the Close Tuesday, January 25th, 2022:
July CBOT Wheat Settled at $8.07¾
Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 48 ¼ cents
19-month high: $8.63 November 24th, 2021
19-month low $5.16½ May 18, 2020
19-month range is $3.46½
Tuesday’s closing price is:
55¼ cents below the 19-month high
$2.91¼ above the 19-month low
USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 146, world: 135
USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 117, world: 130
Seasonal Trend is down
Fundamentals: pretty iffy…
Technical situation is up short term, down
Price Above Breakeven? Yes
Conclusion: If you follow these recommendations, you sold July soft red winter wheat at $7.97 yesterday.
Last week’s low was $7.59¾, the high was $8.17¾
This week's Bullish Consensus:
64% bullish
13% bearish
17% neutral
6% no opinion
For the next several weeks or months, we will be tracking Hard Red Winter Wheat, which we have not recommended a sale yet.
