The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) settled at 34,429.88, up 82.85 points for the week.
Crude oil settled at $80.34, up $3.79 for the week.
The Dollar Index settled at 104.51, down 1.55 for the week.
The Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 1,324, steady for the week.
Below is corn, soybeans and wheat basis outlook this week.
Corn
March futures at $6.46¼ down $0.25 for the week.
Basis
(H = March; e.g. 10H means 10 over March) (Futures price + Basis = Cash price)
US national average basis is 11H, 3 cents weaker.
Dayton, Ohio Cargill’s Spot basis is 7H, 7 cents firmer, $6.53 cash price;
Iowa Falls Poet’s Spot basis is 17H, 3 cents weaker, $6.63 cash price.
COT Report (Commitment of Traders)
Big Spec Funds change is +17,970 to 109,380 net long.
Index Funds change is +3,490 to 363,150 net long.
Open Interest change is -312,866 to 1,453,268.
The CFTC’s Commitment of Traders Report (COT) is issued every Friday afternoon. It reports open interest as of the close of business the previous Tuesday. Open Interest is the number of contracts on the books. You can find our explanation of Open Interest and Funds trades here: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/education-open-interest-of-specs-01-23-2022
Crush Margin
Corn Ethanol Crush Margin was $2.32, $2.57 a week ago and $5.28 a year ago.
The price of corn subtracted from the value of processed products = ethanol crush margin.
Soybeans
November futures at $14.38½, up $0.02¼ for the week.
Basis
(F = January; e.g. -20F means 20 under January) (Futures price + Basis = Cash price)
US national average basis is -21F, 1 cent firmer.
Iowa Falls Cargill: Spot basis is -5F, 20 cents weaker, $14.34 cash price;
Sidney, OH Cargill: Spot basis is even F, 5 cents weaker, $14.39 cash price;
COT Report (Commitment of Traders)
Big Spec Funds change is +21,040 to 52,241 net long.
Index Funds change is -3,360 to 127,404 net long.
Open Interest change is +3,531 to 721,613.
Crush Margin
Soybean Crush Margin was $4.91, $4.84 a week ago and $3.60 a year ago.
Crush margin = value of the oil and meal extracted from a bushel of beans minus the cost of a bushel of beans.
Wheat
Soft Red Winter Wheat (CBOT)
July 2023 futures at $7.79¾, down $0.32 for the week.
Basis
(N = July, H = March; e.g. -28N means 28 under July) (Futures price + Basis = Cash price)
US national average basis is -68H.
Heritage Coop. at Mechanicsburg, OH: July basis is -50N, steady, $7.30 cash price.
COT Report (Commitment of Traders)
Big Spec Funds change is +299 to -65,392 net short.
Index Funds change is -723 to 102,763 net long.
Open Interest change is -75,651 to 367,782.
Hard Red Winter Wheat (Kansas City BOT)
July 2023 futures at $8.59, down $0.34¾ for the week.
Basis
(N = July; e.g. -40N means 40 under July) (Futures price + Basis = Cash price)
US national average basis is -27H.
Producer AG at Canton, KS: July basis is -30N, steady, $8.64 cash price.
COT Report (Commitment of Traders)
Big Spec Funds change is -1,136 to -1,020 net short from net long last week.
Index Funds change is +1,547 to 47,806 net long.
Open Interest change is -10,896 to 154,278.
Hard Spring Wheat (Minneapolis Grain Exchange)
September 2023 futures at $9.01¼, down $0.16½ for the week.
US national average basis is -35H.
What you should have noticed
Crude oil gained what it lost last week.
Baltic Dry Index is steady, that's unusual, but favorable for the export business.
Index funds liquidated a massive number of both long and short corn contracts (72,714 or 13%) while big specs increased long positions by 19.6%.
And overall corn open Interest was reduced by 312,866 contracts! That is huge! Similar liquidation the week of July 1, 2022 (summer price low July 22) and on December 3, 2021, and on July 2, 2021 (summer low July 9), as well as December 1, 2020 (the last time futures traded below $4.10). So, it looks like a pattern…
Big Spec Funds increased their soybeans long positions by 7.8%.
Another big open interest decline in Soft Red Wheat of 17%, a lot of those came from Index Funds. Again, it happened before on September 2 and July 1 and December 3, 2021 etc.
Big Spec Funds went from net long to net short at Hard Red Wheat.
Basis at Iowa Falls and Sidney was weaker while national average basis was slightly firmer, but still much weaker than at Cargill in Iowa falls and Sidney, Ohio.
All futures were lower this week except for the soybeans.
Corn crush margin was lower again, soybeans crush is about the same, but both are more than double the crush margins of two years ago this week.
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mi humilde pensamiento es que la cantidad de trigo es muy baja a nivel mundial, ahora hay que estar pendientes de la demanda.