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Trades & Bans, Soybeans Shortage, Options, Export Inspections, Markets & Rain Days Update 5/10/22

Highlights


Some planters in the fields pressured prices Monday, but the bigger news was the $7.38 drop in cash crude oil prices due to the idea the EU would not ban importing Russian crude oil. We had previously mentioned Hungary and Slovakia said they would not support an EU ban on Russian crude oil. The EU charter requires all members to agree to any import ban or export ban. The EU brain trust in Brussels is scurrying to find a loophole or an excuse to allow some EU members to import Russian crude while the remaining members officially ban Russian crude.


If no Russian crude was imported, the EU would have to find another source for crude oil and that would raise the price of oil. The expected import ban is why cash crude oil price was up $6.21 and June futures were up $5.68 last week. Monday, the need for the EU to find a new source of crude oil appeared to be a non-issue and crude oil and natural gas dropped like a rock.


Crude was also hurt by the news that China’s crude oil imports the first four months of 2022 were 4.8% less than a year ago. The bullish news is that despite the four months of crude imports declined, April crude oil imports were actually up 6.6% over a year ago to 10.51 million barrels per day. Now that is bullish!

 

Planting progress for corn and beans was 2% less than expected. Winter Wheat Condition 27% good or excellent, up 2% from last week, but way down from 49% year ago.

AgRurul reduced their estimate of Brazil's corn crop 5 million mt to 112.3 million. USDA is at 116 million mt.

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