Mato Grosso (MT) grows 30+% of Brazil corn and beans. It is 2.5 times the size of Texas. Its soybean harvest is 13.6% complete vs 31.8% last year. Last year was a little faster than normal harvest pace for beans and planting safrinha corn. If the rains continue to substantially delay soybean harvest for two more weeks, the safrinha crop production will be substantially reduced and very bullish corn.
Soybean export inspections yesterday were 68 million bushels; what is needed each to meet USDA projection for the year is 19.9 million bushels per week. Sure, US exports will slow, as they always do when Brazil gets some beans cut, but, even then, the price of beans will have to rise a bunch to keep the USA from running out of beans in August.
JP Morgan expects diesel fuel prices to remain about steady into late March, but steadily decline in the second quarter of 2023.