The Ukraine Grain Corridor deal has not been extended, but the market still expects it will be.
Four years ago today, July 2019 and December 2019 corn futures gapped higher on the opening after making contract lows the previous day at $3.43 on the July and $3.63 on December corn. Five weeks later, July corn traded to $4.64 and December corn to $4.73. The two contracts rallied an average of 32% in five weeks.
Market action in the first part of 2019 was similar to this year, down, down, and then down some more. What was different in 2019 is rain started in mid-April and continued into the third week in May. The market’s attitude was rain makes grain, even though the crops were not planted. Just 30% of the corn and 9% of the beans were planted by this date in 2019. A third of the 2019 corn crop and two-thirds of the bean crop were planted in June.