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Tidbits, Marketing Comments & Plans, Rain Days Update 1/14/24

Marketing Tidbits, Comments & Plans

Kory Melby is a former Minnesota farmer who immigrated to Brazil about 24 years ago and became a consultant for everything related to agriculture. Roger first met Kory in February 2003 and has come to respect his judgment and thoughts. Kory knows what is going on with world soybean and corn markets. Here are some of Kory’s comments after Friday’s USDA reports:

"Sure gonna be difficult to ever believe a drought forecast or dry spell again- anywhere. Hundreds of maps last summer to nip a few bushels.


Honestly, I am feeling sexually abused by weather people and crop tours after 2023. I am befuddled by the BR soybean crop at the moment. It is not 130 mil mts and it is not 160 mil mts. Is there a sleeping bull here? I dunno today. Looking for April High- But...


After being wrong the past 3-4 weeks, I am a bit timid at the moment. Which probably means the lows are in. Sure, we can rally, but it might be just a retracement. How do we get to $13.20 is my query today? Feel like a one nutted bull today.


We have 3 wars going now- maybe a 4th one will be the charm to poke the bears?


A Mato Grosso farmer group forecast the region's 23/24 soybean production at 35.75 mmt, down from the 36.15 mmt in their Dec' forecast, and down 9.56 mmt from the previous crop season."


Jason Britt, President of Central States Commodities in Kansas City:

"Where the crop ratings finished the year there is no way the yield should have been raised like it was on this report. Crop ratings are completely useless on judging the crop after what we saw today."


All of the above information gives reason to expect a rally at some later date, but 2023 taught us a bitter lesson:

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