Our Wednesday mailing included this statement:
It is not a coincidence that the price of wheat has rallied 50 cents as the funds liquidated some of their short (sold) positions. Will they continue to be buyers? We will have to wait and see, but we can conclude anyone shorting (selling before buying) CBOT wheat right now will provide that trader with a high probability of a major league losing position.
A client asked if that statement meant he should be selling wheat.
No, Sir, just the opposite. Roger apologizes for the lack of clear communication, but those words mean we expect wheat to continue higher for the foreseeable future. The past three days, CBOT Wheat is up 18 cents, KC wheat is up 8¾ and Spring wheat is up 4½ cents.
By the way, Russia, the world’s leading wheat exporter, will increase its wheat export tax a sizable amount next week to $67.50 per mt, their highest tax since late August. In 2022, Russia produced about 26% more wheat than ever before and they are still restricting exports... What does that tell you about the wheat market?