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Tidbits, CBOT Schedule, Export Inspections, Markets & Rain Days Update 12/19/23

Holiday CBOT Trading Hours


Friday December 22: normal trading hours

Sunday Dec 24: markets closed

Monday Dec 25: markets closed

Tuesday Dec 26: markets open at 8:30 AM CST.

Friday Dec 29: normal trading hours

Sunday Dec 31: markets closed

Monday Jan 1: markets closed

Tuesday Jan 2: markets open at 8:30 AM CST.


 

Highlights


Last evening’s GFS model run was drier & Euro model was wetter for the next week in the dry areas of Brazil. The GFS model has been more correct as of the past few months.

 

Yesterday, Dr. Michael Cordonnier reduced his estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop by 2 million mts to 155.0 mil mts (USDA 161).   

 

Friday’s CFTC’s Commitment of Traders (COT) Report revealed commercials (grain merchandisers, aka hedgers) continue to hold an unusually large long position by comparison to their short position in corn and wheat. That means they have sold far more than their normal percentage of cash grain bushels while holding long futures for the large amount of DP and basis contracts. In other words, the physical grain is gone, but commercials own it on paper, which they should if they sold the cash grain.   

 

Farmers were sellers of beans this past two months, so the commercial bean position is heavily net short (to hedge the inventory owned by the commercials). Therefore, there will be light selling of the January to March spread from commercials as first notice day (Dec 29th) approaches. The January bean contract has gained 8¢ on the March since Dec 5th with 5¢ the past two days. It looks like it will continue to narrow. Check it out at:  

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