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Tech Guy Weekend Update 6/10/23

Corn belt dryness update - We are taking a look at the last 30 days of rain as a percentage of normal/average:

These are just eyeball estimates, but it looks like almost a third of the Illinois acreage is under the 25% threshold of precipitation for the last 30 days - Maybe 30-40% of Indiana and 40% of Ohio.


Then there is a small blob in Minnesota that is 25% or less. The last 14 days is even less moisture-more deep red color, with almost the entirety of Ohio in the 25% or less precipitation category. I feel for these folks.


I am not even going to attempt an estimate of the acreage in the 50% or less rainfall, but it is huge! The Mississippi delta is also affected by the 50% or less mark. The map is blown up, so the bottom of the map cuts off at the Arkansas - Louisiana border.



The left side of the map is into a sliver of Montana, where it appears they are receiving an abundance of rainfall. The color is turned way up, so the state lines are not clear. Here is the link if you want to inspect this map further.



Last 30 Days Percentage of Normal Rainfall

July Soybeans had a bullish reaction to the somewhat bearish USDA report by closing up 24.50 cents and a few ticks from the high. This price action was also a breakout from the 4 days of sideways congestive action.


I expect some strong follow through buying next week. Of course it is possible to get a lower opening Sunday night, but this would serve the bulls as a buying opportunity. You can see my target on the chart of about 1456. The first target higher for November Soybeans is about 1264.


We could also get that gap higher Sunday night? Let's see.


Here is Friday's daily July Bean chart.


I'm learning from Roger that Soybean Oil is/will be the driving force in the oilseed complex, as opposed to meal moving forward. Further, July bean oil broke higher from a down channel on Friday. It looks as though this chart is well on it's way to higher prices. Take a look at the Weekly soybean oil.


July Corn spent another day consolidating yesterday. It has 1 more day of energy stored up for the uptrend. First resistance is around the 654 level, but later on, the inverted head & shoulders target is 670. Check out Friday's daily corn chart.


What is most interesting, is that the 670 level was a series of higher prices on the July contract chart in January and February. This is not an accident. Nature/mass behavior works this way. Look at the 8 hour July Corn.


July Crude Oil Update:


Oil has been consolidating/marking a corrective wave A-B-C-D-E, and I think it is pointing to higher prices, but I'm not certain of that. Before, there was a mention of the red line below 70 (about 69) being support. Crude traded down there on big volume and then rebounded somewhat, closing the week out at 70.35.


Take notice of the enormous volume bar on the price bar spike that is labeled E, down below on the crude chart. This bar is from Thursday's trading from 8A-12 CDT and it supports the case for the fund bulls.



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