Tech Guy Weekend Comments for 9/24/22
A reminder about the big picture in grains - Corn Beans and Wheat consolidated on the weekly and monthly charts for 6 years between 2014-2020. Then in the spring/summer of 2020 an uptrend began.
The most likely scenario now is that the grains are in the still in the midst of an uptrend which should last until 2024-2025. The rule of charts says markets will spend roughly the same amount of time in an uptrend that they did in the sideways channel. Or the energy could go up for 4 (spring/summer 2024) years then down 2.
The grains made a swing high in May 2021, a swing low in summer/fall of 2021, a higher high in March-May of 2022, then a higher low in July of this year. On the weekly chart the grains are in an up impulse = uptrend since July of this year and this action should continue for the foreseeable future (this year) + that new highs (beyond highs of this May) will be achieved before the July 2022 lows are taken out.
When the market is in an uptrend = impulsive energy = primary. The secondary energy is corrective or down in this case with our grains.
Where are we now? middle of an impulse - up, consolidating (going sideways to up) - for the last month - roughly 62% back up from the most recent correction in June-July of this year.
Friday appeared to be a selling capitulation in all most/assets across the board (equities, energies, metals, grains, etc). This is called risk off when everything sells together. The next move (next week) is most likely up in the grains, energies and stock market - into Friday's quarterly report. After that I expect a correction down into the October 12th monthly report (grains).
Nov Soybeans seems to move farther than I think it can - going through the 1449 support to the price of 1420 on Friday. First resistance is about 1500, then I expect a correction back to 1449, then back up to 1508, then the gap at 1536 or as high as 1560 - the quarterly report will be volatile - then I expect a correction from next Friday's high - remember, Sep 29/30 is the 35/38 day cycle - I expect a swing high.
Here is a blowup of the Nov Bean chart - notice the volume bar Friday.
Dec Corn sold off to 669.5 on Friday - just above the 667 support. The next move should be up to the 700 area from here, then next, correct as far back as 682. Then after that, rally to the gap at 734 (resistance) or 749, depending on how volatile Friday's report is.
Resistance is 87-90 In Nov Crude Oil and 3.40-3.50 in Nov Heating Oil. Notice the peak volume on the crude chart below, indicating capitulation on Friday -weak buyers giving up & the strong buyers (funds) entering new longs.
Notice on the Dec S&P chart, the old important low I marked and showed you in June. On Friday, it almost sold off to that June low with capitulation (very high) volume to form a double bottom. It will most likely buy up next week.