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Tech Guy Weekend Comments for 7/9/22


Because the weather outlook is the main driver of the fund buying in corn and beans this time of year, I wanted to address what's been seen so far. The next 8-12 weeks is the critical development window for corn, then soybeans.


We don't want to sound like a broken record, but the forecast for this timeframe is bullish, both in Europe and in the US. Both countries are predicted to remain too dry and hot.


The weather men/women are clear, similar to technical analysis - they don't know 100% - they simply use modeling programs/data that spit out the forecast which can change but that the probabilities favor what they are seeing - because it is a trend similar to a trend for the corn or bean chart.


That being said, the US corn belt keeps trending more dry and hot on the 6-10 day and for the rest of July, August and part of September - the funds are being driven by this data and as long as the weekly forecasts are bullish, so will the corn and soybean markets.


With all this information in mind, I saw a snapshot of maximum US temperatures for July 24 - that is 15 days out from today and it is hot.


This another forecast website from NOAA - it is a daily map of each day's heat and rainfall predicted out for 7 days.

https://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/conusWeek.php#tabs


Given all the weather data, the most likely scenario Sunday night is a gap higher. If so, the daily Dec Corn and Nov Soybeans charts will have another gap called a measuring gap. It could be a halfway gap but it could also measure only a third of the way with another gap later on. We will have to see then.


Time in the grain markets speeds up dramatically during this time of year. A market move that normally takes a month could equal 1 week now.


If corn or soybeans gaps up, we can predict a minimum of 690-700 Dec Corn, 1615 for Aug Beans, and 1515 for Nov Beans. For instance, in Dec corn the move from Wed low to Fri high/close was about 60 cents. If it gaps up +10 from the Friday close to 635 you add 635 + 60 = 695.