Tech Guy Weekend Comments for 10/1/22
I will begin with the conspiracy theory - That the 2022 soybean production is hurting more than the market currently believes. The extra 30 million bushels of soybeans found yesterday could be a head nod that the bean 22/23 (currently being harvested) production estimate for Oct 12th will be below the September estimate - maybe by a lot.?
Just a theory. Could the USDA be attempting to soften the blow - to try and keep ending stocks above the pipeline minimum? We will find out in 11 days.
I have not been doing very well with the Nov Bean chart analysis since the Sep USDA report - that day had all the hallmarks of a breakout up from a triangle - huge up day with high volume and increasing open interest.
However, the gravity of the trading range that beans have been in since July was too strong and the trade has pulled price down to the lows of the range. Now what? Friday, Nov Beans low (1463) is about 4 cents from the top of the gap and 14 cents from closing the gap.
I don't think the trade will close the gap next week, but it may. Either way, I believe the 35-38 day cycle turn is a swing low as I last said earlier in the week. Friday was day 36 and price should work up from here. Here is the updated Nov Soybean chart. The lower red horizontal line is the top of the gap.
Also noteworthy is yesterday's volume (notice the last volume bar to the (right) - the 2nd highest only after the July price low - this indicates capitulation (the end of selling). 1358.25 is the top of the gap and the Aug 3rd low is 1356. This area is where I look for support now.
Dec Corn is still stuck in a range between 660-700. 660 will be support and 700 resistance - I doubt it will break out of the range before the Oct 12th report.
Dec Wheat had the most bullish reaction to yesterday's report and continues to have the most bullish chart overall, testing the July 10th swing high at 940.25. After last trading at 923.25, the upper neckline (894) is where I expect the funds to buy again.
The next up leg could go as far as the June 16-17th high at 1084.75 - maybe as a reaction to the The Oct 12th report. Here is the updated Dec Wheat chart.
Nov Crude Oil Update: the 80 support level was tested rigorously yesterday, however I still believe the most likely scenario is a move to the 86 level.
After a back and forth week, I maintain that the big picture (macroeconomic) is continuing to turn from a risk off (selling) environment to a risk on (buying). Even though the S&P made a lower low yesterday, the VIX could not make a higher high- indicating the fear level (selling) is still decreasing and strong buyers are entering the market. No change to the new downtrend in the US Dollar and Dec Gold appears to have bottomed out in the last week after a 6 month down leg which began on March 8th.