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Tech Guy Weekend Comments 2/20/23

March Corn finished positive +2.25 last Friday amidst another very small range day. Since about January 25th, corn has traded in a very narrow range between 670 and 688 with many of those days moving in a range of less than a dime.

The point here is that March Corn has been building energy for a big move one way or the other, but more likely higher. Since the first of May 2022 down to the July 2022 lows is about 263 cents. However, corn needs to clear the 2020 up trend line to confirm a big move higher.

The 263 cents is the long side of a big triangle and it projects a 263 cent move. Because corn is at the apex of the triangle, the move will probably begin sooner rather than later. I will let you all do the math.

Here is the daily continuation corn chart (now March). February 15th was a cycle timing point for a high, a low, or starting place for a trend move. See what you think of this large triangle.

When looking at the daily continuation of soybeans, you see a different but similar picture as corn. The difference being the long slightly up trending triangle that is also coming to a pinch, the similarity that prices are consolidating and building energy with a small range of trading. - prices are likely to break from the pinch.

The last 2 days ranges were 12 cents and 9 cents for beans - very small for soybeans. See what you make from this daily soybean updated chart.

March Wheat marked an outside day Doji bar on Friday after backfilling about 78% of the move up. A doji bar after a correction is likely to turn prices back up. This is typical - corrections after the first run up are normally the deepest because the bears still have some hope and a foothold. It will be during the next up leg that they will lose most of this hope,

This is the March Wheat chart with fewer notes and lines - just bars, a couple lines and a double bottom projection of 880. Also notice how wheat found support at the 760 level - the red horizontal line.

Natural Gas is in the 5.5 % range of prices from low to high over the last 20 years, where the low is 0% and the high is 100% - bottom 5.5% of prices overall. This doesn't mean gas is going to rally, just that gas does not have far to sell off to reach the low of $1.44 printed in 2020 as prices are currently about $2.28.

However, Nat gas will have a correction up at some point during the next 6-12 months, and when it does, prices could rally as far up as about $5.00 Here is the Natural gas chart going back to 2000 so you can visualize the huge price range.

March Crude Oil update: From last Thursday's comments - "A down correction or backfill can consist of a single A-B-C or 2 A-B-C's linked together, or a triangle that is numbered A-B-C-D-E."

Crude did not respond to the E point of the triangle with a rally. Therefore, we have to revisit the third possibility from above - a triple 3 or A-B-C-X-A-B-C. Check out the new corrective numbering. Also, crude oil backfilled about 62% of the rally - a common retracement.


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