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Tech Guy Weekend Comments 12/31/22

Comments about March Wheat from last Thursday -"...but the sellers could not touch the uptrend line. We will see if it tests this line tomorrow, but if it can't, this is more bullish. Further, the action today means that the fund buyers are too eager and could not wait a few cents down to buy."

Friday's price action demonstrated as expected, that wheat was too strong again to test the lower line and in fact it rallied 17 cents to close above the important level that shows a breakout to the upside.

This statement goes for March Corn, Wheat and Soybeans for Tuesday morning - Three day weekends are impossible to predict exactly how they will open. These openings are engineered to surprise this way to catch one side (long or short) off guard.

Somebody with a bunch of money knows how things will open, but the majority of players do not know for sure, including me. What I can do is propose 2 different scenarios - grains will either have a breakaway gap up or gap down and rally within the first 45 minutes of the session. Here is the updated March Wheat showing support areas.

Thursday's March Corn comment: "remember what I said about steady bull markets?...that they tend to not backfill a whole lot, leaving behind would be buyers." Friday's action saw corn again test the triangle trendline and rally. I still believe March Corn will not sell off all the way to 665, but either of the above scenarios is possible. Check out Friday's updated chart.

March Soybeans had a third up day in a row above the 1508 breakout level. This action is very constructive for a continued uptrend. However, If beans don't gap up Tuesday morning, support is 1508 then 1488 if there is some bearish surprise. I have labeled these support lines 1 & 2, respectively below.

Additionally, March Soybean Meal marked a big up day which traded higher than the previous high. This is what you want to see in a bull market. Also, meal was never able to test the breakout line because demand has been too strong. Check out the daily chart again.

On Friday, Feb Crude Oil was able to rally $2.11 to $80.51 off of the double bottom or inverted head & shoulders. The medium term trend (3 weeks) is still up and 86 to 87 is still reasonable.

However, because of Roger's fundamental concerns, oil may find a range to trade in for a few weeks. The 81.20 level above is still resistance and the 77 level is support until it can break upwards. Please look how crude responded to the bottom pattern which formed the last 3 days.

The March S&P did not have an up day Friday, but was able to print a higher low, which is somewhat constructive to higher prices nearterm. Have a look at Friday's chart.


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