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Tech Guy Weekend Comments 12/17/22

The weekly Soybean chart has marked an inside narrow range week this week - this indicates it was an energy building week, and the odds of a breakout to the upside next week are moderately high. In fact, Last week's range was the smallest high to low range since Feb 15th 2021.

This Inside, narrow range pattern is noteworthy when the week in question is the smallest range of the last 7 weeks or bars. Last week was the most narrow range in about 95 weeks! Next week will likely be an expanded week.

The commitment of traders was bullish for soybeans - on the short form, futures only table. The funds were net buyers of about 23,000 contracts including adding longs and covering shorts. The open interest increased 16,544 while prices increased also. Here is the COT form:

Some of the notes (can't read all notes) on the weekly chart run together, but you can see the bars - and the one in Feb 2021 which we are comparing to.

I have also included the weekly Soybean Meal chart where you can clearly see the weekly breakout up which occurred last week - and this week couldn't even test the breakout point down below - a sign of strength.

Here is a reminder of where the trade sits with the daily March Corn chart - late harvest (my opinion) low last week, now we are going back up into the January-February timeframe.

I would like to see March Wheat close above 789 next week. This would add confidence that the 865-900 price levels will be soon targeted.

Jan Crude Oil Update: a swing measure target means the first leg was 8 bucks so the next up leg will be minimum 8 bucks which takes you to 81.5 - more specifically, 81.5 is the lowest target as 3rd waves (2nd up legs) are often be 1.38 or 1.5 times the first leg in financials and energies.

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