Tech Guy Weekend Comments 11/27/22
no opening calls tonight - have to play airport shuttle for family.
The big triangle in January Soybeans which began last summer is closing in on the highs and lows as we speak. What was a 291 cent range has closed to about a 38 cent range.
Friday closed about 16 cents from breaking out of the top side and support is about 27 cents below - this is the top & bottom side of the triangle. You will see on the 4 hour Jan Bean chart that the apex of the triangle is closing fast and I expect to see some upside action for the upcoming week,
Dec Wheat broke down below the 2007 trendline on Friday and closed at 771.50. At this juncture I don't know if this is a mere 1 day fake out below that line (that will quickly reverse back up) or if wheat has to sell down more to test the August 18th lows at 725.75. Next week's trade will surely reveal which course Dec Wheat will take. Overall however, wheat is continuing to correct and consolidate before another substantial rally in the bigger picture. Here is the updated Dec Wheat 8 hour chart.
After the huge spike down and up in January Crude Oil last Monday between 75.27 and 82.36, backfilling and consolidation took up the rest of the week. It was an A-B-C correction all the way back down to 76.22 on Friday. Crude Oil may have to test the lows another buck down, but I am leaning the other way - that Friday's low or within a few cents will hold the line and a new rally will begin on that timeframe - up from C.
The US Dollar made a swing high at 107.895 last Monday then sold off back down to 105.545. This swing high is within 50-75 cents of where I said 1st resistance would be. The next down leg has begun and the 100 area is still the next downside target.
Remember, 100 was the target I mentioned a couple weeks ago which was derived from the price difference in the dollar's top formation. It's uncanny how a chart will reveal more than 1 clue that points to the same target a lot of the time.
Any one trading Cotton has already rolled to the March contract. The first up leg completed at the price of 90. The first down correction should almost be complete in the 80-79 area on March Cotton. The count would be a 1-2-3-4-5 up, then an A-B-C down. The count is also big 1 - big 2, now we should begin big 3 up - target - the for big 3 is about 89 for March Cotton within 2-3 weeks.