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Tech Guy Weekend Comments 11/12/22

The most important technical news this weekend is the continued selling off of the US Dollar. Friday witnessed another huge selloff in the USD of 1.928 points, to the price of 106.164. What is the most stunning point to me is that in the last 6 trading days the USD has sold off from 113.164 down to 106.164 - this equals 7 full dollars - more than a dollar per day!


As I have shown you before, the Eurocurrency trades exactly opposite to the US Dollar as currencies are traded in pairs - USD/EU - similar to a spread like July Corn over Dec Corn. The Dec Eurocurrency has formed an upside down Head & Shoulders with a target to the equivalent of 101 in the US Dollar - down 5 more Dollars. Check out this 8 hour Eurocurrency chart.


The important takeaway from these facts is that the grains and crude oil rally 90% or more of the time when the US Dollar is in a downtrend. Therefore, I expect Jan Beans to continue rallying and Dec Corn and Wheat to begin nice uptrends next week.


From yesterday's comments: "Jan Soybeans came down to my support around the 1420 level today and tomorrow might be an up day." January Soybeans rallied about 29 cents on Friday from 1420.50 to 1458.75.


From yesterday's comments about Dec Corn: "The most likely scenario is that Dec Corn is faking out to the downside, flushing more weak longs out of the market." Today saw no more selling in corn and in fact it rallied 4+ cents on the day from 652.75 to 657.50. Dec Wheat held above Thursday's low of 795.50 and bought up to a high of 819.50 on Friday.


Dec Crude Oil moved up from the support level around 85-86 back to a close of 88.86 which was up +2.39 on the day, Friday - back up to 94 is in play again.


A correction in my previous Dec Cotton comments: It was not able to backfill to the 81-82 area last week for buyers because it is too strong - the bulls are in control. Instead it pulled back only to 84.19 on Wednesday. Cotton is still on it's way up to the 120 area and beyond.