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Tech Guy Weekend Comment 6/11/22

The July & Dec Corn response to the USDA report was bullish, plain and simple. The fact that corn could not sell off tells us the market either did not believe the numbers or other concerns such as weather are front and center, or both. July Corn settled Friday very close to the '21 high (right in the middle of the recent range).


The Soybean reaction to the report numbers could be seen as a little bit bearish (I don't think so) because both July and Nov sold off. It is more likely that beans were overbought on Thursday and simply needed to do some re-balancing for the week.


Even though July beans sold lower than my support levels yesterday, both old and new crop beans made new highs for the week and had the highest weekly close since 2012. It means I was looking too zoomed in on the 30 min chart.


The weekly and monthly charts are like looking at a US or state map and the intraday charts are like following your I-phone to your next destination - you can't see what's in the periphery.


Please take a look at the Soybean weekly bar chart below and follow each bar from February to now. The chart goes back to August '21 when beans were still selling to the low into November '21. The '21 high was 1677. You can imagine a horizontal line across the chart at 1677 looking at the price scale on the right.


The upper half of the entire 3 1/2 month consolidation from February till now sits atop the '21 highs. This is a chart that is building energy to go higher.


The open for each bar is the hashmark on the lower left of the bar and the close is the upper right hashmark (the bar represents the high/low). You will see that the next highest close was 2 weeks ago roughly 13 cents lower.


The low to high (Nov-Feb) took 16 bars, and the range since Feb/Mar completed 15 bars yesterday. I have mentioned how the grains like time symmetry - the 37/38 day cycle, etc., which comes in next Friday.


July Crude Oil Update: The range for the week was 117-118 to 123 (122.99). I am anticipating the first 2-3 days next week to remain in this range (with 3-4 up/downs). Nimble traders can capitalize. After that we will see.