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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Natural Gas Comments 1/8/23

March Wheat - Steady to 1 Higher


March Corn - 1 to 2 Higher


March Beans - 2 to 3 Higher


Natural Gas futures has traded in a sideways range for 12 years from 2009 to 2021, from a low of 1.44 to 6.50. Then in early 2022, it broke out to the upside with a rally to 10.00.


In 2020 gas made a lower low for the range to 1.44, then began it's historic rally. On the weekly chart I found 2 separate "middle of the range" lines which mark a balance point for this long sideways trade, the 1st one higher and the 2nd one lower. Friday's Doji occurred in the middle of these 2 lines.


Additionally, on the weekly chart, gas tagged a downtrend line going from 2014 to 2019, also at 3.52. Natural Gas has corrected down 76% from the 10.00 highs. This is very close to the Fibonacci 78% level. Therefore from a long term perspective (weeks to months) I'd have to say Natural Gas at a fairly low risk level for a long.


The buy risk on the weekly chart would be down to 3.18, which is the mid - point of the later sideways range from 2018-2021. You will be able to see what I am talking about on the weekly chart here. The first weekly chart shows these facts going back to 2009. Everything should be labeled and marked.


The next chart here is a zoomed in look at the Nat Gas weekly starting in 2018 till present so you can see the relevant details easier.


The next chart below is the daily Natural Gas Feb contract which shows even more details. The sell off from the 10.00 high is a 2 legged A-B-C- correction where the 2nd C leg is 77% of A - very close to the 78% Fibonacci again. Any time you see these ratios near a Fibonacci coupled with other factors, you have higher confidence that the move is complete or a market turn will occur.


Also, on Friday, Nat gas marked a Doji bar which gives us more confidence of a market that is turning from down to up. Confidence is high that Nat Gas is very near or at the lows of this move. Once we have a confirmation of a solid low, Natural gas would most likely rally back up to the 4.85 area, then pullback to the 4.40 area.


After that, Natural Gas should rally from 4.40 to the 7.00-750 level, which is back up 50% - 60% of the down move. This higher price will most likely take weeks/months to accomplish. See if you can see all the evidence I'm talking about in these 3 charts. The Daily chart is right here going back to May.



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