Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments for 9/29/22
Dec Wheat - 1 Lower
Dec Corn - Steady to 1 Higher
Nov Beans - 1 to 2 Lower
Yesterday both Dec Corn and Nov Soybeans marked Doji bars on their daily chart on probable swing low points - as a reminder a Doji on a swing low - a market open, spike down, then buying up, then a close very near the open.
Open interest increased in Dec Corn by +10,478 contracts yesterday. It increased in Nov Beans by +6838 contracts. This indicates new money (fund buyers) entering the market -weaker hands sold the market down and strong funds bought it back up.
When a swing low Doji occurs concurrently with an increase in open interest, this ups the odds that a new up leg will begin. Couple this with the Quarterly (yearly ending) stocks report tomorrow which is also going to reconcile/review 2019-2021 ending stocks and usage, and you get the picture - a volatile scenario.
On tomorrow's report there is more risk for higher prices than lower, but anything is possible. If Nov Beans and Dec Corn do not simply trade higher, there could be selling which tests yesterday's lows first then reverses up, but speculating on the details is a wild card - the bulls have an edge, we just don't know by how much.
The US Dollar had follow through selling today which marked a lower low - This increases the odds that yesterday's key reversal swing top will be in place for a while. Most analysts and traders define a key reversal down to be: a higher high than the previous day, then selling off which marks a lower low and close than the previous 3 days low prices.
Dec Wheat corrected a few cents today but stayed above the inclining neckline. This is bullish. Here is the updated Wheat chart:
Nov Crude Oil held it's ground today and was up $.38 for the day, closing at $81.61. I am looking for a target of $87 tomorrow or early next week.
All the stock indexes sold off hugely today, almost back down to the lows, after yesterday's big up day. The theme is the same - big tug of war going on between the bears and bulls - we will see if tomorrow brings stocks back up somewhat. There is some bullish divergence between the stocks and the VIX index. The VIX is a measure of the fear level in equities.
In other words the DOW Industrials almost tested it's low today, whereas the VIX showed less fear by not going up as much, putting the odds higher for an up day than down, tomorrow in equities.