Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments for 9/26/22
Dec Wheat - Steady
Dec Corn - Steady to 1 Lower
Nov Beans - 1 Lower
There is a lot of fear and indecision in all financial markets currently. Macroeconomic capitulation can take 2 or 3 days - All I can do is report what I think I see - unless world matters are actually blowing up (lets hope not) this thing should resolve itself shortly.
The grains and crude and stock market were down a bit more today but the primary price action feature was back and forth - indecision. The eurocurrency (opposite US dollar) had enormous trading volume last early evening - it was a huge down volume bar (spike) and a similar big volume up bar on the 15 min chart (it could not print a lower low all day) - the sideways action after the spike down & up is called a "ledge". Again, this type behavior is indicative of capitulation. If the US Dollar is actually topping out (opposite Euro), this will help US markets get some traction.
When the Eurocurrency goes up the US Dollar trades down. The truest statement I can make is that enormous sums of money is changing hands - this normally means "the end" of the move. Please see the euro chart below - last night's volume is highlighted with red arrows.
663 to 658 is my lowest support prices for Dec Corn. There is a gap way down at 631 (Dec Corn) but I don't think it's in the cards. 1399 should be support for Nov Beans. There is the breakaway gap way down at 1358, but?
For both of these charts, this support is an uptrend line starting from the July lows, and drawn up across the higher lows since then. If these levels are violated by much and for more than 1 day I can honestly say "watch out" the sky might be falling, although, this is how it already kind of feels.
Here is the Dec Corn 4 hour chart with uptrend line and support area marked with red arrow.
The August 8th high in Dec Wheat is 845.75. This is the original horizontal neckline of the messy, upside down Head & Shoulders. This level is only 1 cent down from today's close and lets hope it holds . If not, the 829 area is below that.
Nov Crude Oil Update: Crude formed a pattern called a broadening bottom Friday and today. It is a series of 2 higher highs and 2 lower lows - you can picture it - like an expanding triangle - this pattern expresses the increasing tension between bulls and bears - powerful indecision.