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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments for 8/4/22

Sep Wheat - Steady to 1 Lower


Sep Corn - Steady to 1 Lower

Dec Corn - Steady to 1 Lower


Sep Beans - Steady to 2 Lower

Nov Beans - 3 to 5 Lower


The Sep Soybean - November Soybean spread has been screaming upwards since last Thursday. This means funds are buying the Sep contract more aggressively than the Nov contract. For example, today Sep was up $.59 and Nov beans were up $.49. This spread is also called a bull spread (front month is strongest).


This is what you want to see when you are in a strong bull market - with the demand side leading. In order of strength, strongest first - it's the cash market, front futures month, then back months following. Until last Thursday August Soybeans was leading Sep and Nov beans with strength. Then on first notice day, last Friday, September began to take over the front month strength.


Any threatening weather will add to this bullishness. During the rally if you notice a day where the Nov contract is as strong as the September Beans, you will know that weather/field conditions are in play. I am looking for a strong finish to the week in all grains.


The Sep-Nov soybeans spread bottomed out last Thursday at +8 cents. it has been rallying ever since and closed today at +44 cents. I have always been told this is the strongest kind of bull market because end users are scrambling to cover needs for the rest of August. To clarify, this also means that weather is NOT the primary driver here - it's demand. Here is a 4 hour line chart of this spread (ZSU/ZSX) so you can see what I'm saying. One last point on this bean bull spread - I would like to see this spread make a new high before the September contract does - this will confirm strength.


As I mentioned a few days ago, Sep Wheat and Dec Corn are lagging beans in strength as Dec Corn was only up about 10 today - these markets are also in uptrends, but we should continue seeing the bean complex lead - I believe Roger has also said a thing or 2 about the soybean's bullishness.


Sep Crude Oil Update: support comes in on the daily chart about 84.75 tomorrow for those needing supplies.

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