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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments for 8/30/22

Dec Wheat - 1 to 3 Lower


Dec Corn - Steady to 1 Lower


Nov Beans - Steady to 1 Higher


Dec Corn could not sell off enough to test near the top of the most recent gap at 666.25 today. This is a signal and reminder of the strength and bullishness of this market. We know that the corn crop will be below 14 billion bushel mark (how far below?) and we have many anecdotal accounts of Dec Corn's condition in the field.


Now it is just a matter of patience with Dec Corn - when it takes out yesterday's high of 683.75 most likely in the next couple of days it should accelerate up as stated earlier. My point is there really is no fresh news in corn after Friday's Pro Farmer estimate of 168.1 Now it is time for Dec Corn to digest.


With all the hype on Corn, it seems like Soybeans are being left out - that there is no bullish information for Nov Beans to rally, the rain is helping to fill pods, etc. I disagree. From my sources Chiefly NOAA, there doesn't appear to be any appreciable rain forecast in the corn belt - going out to about Sep 10th. I have heard accounts in supposedly good areas that the pods are BB size - The rain is the south is damaging the mature beans there.


I'm betting the biggest surprise will be soybeans on the USDA Sep 12th report. We all know they will ratchet down the corn yield somewhat. But Soybeans are probably expected to change very little on the report - my feeling is that they will find less bean yield out there, and any decrease will be bullish - even 0.5 bushels.


Here is a reminder of the big triangle forming on the Nov Bean chart. Dec Corn's upside breakout on Aug 23rd did not translate into a breakout in Nov Beans as I previously thought - Nov Beans had to come down to test the bottom of the triangle today - where fund buyers aggressively showed up. This triangle projects a 1668-1689 price target. BE PATIENT. A lot of notes on the chart - please take your time looking.



As you remember, Dec Corn had it's corrective bump on day 34. Today, Nov Beans Bottomed on day 38. So you see it's a date range. Moving forward I will count both from Friday and today. The next cycle turn will be anytime from Sep 30 - Oct 5-7.


The direction in Oct Crude Oil is still up, although it corrected $7 from yesterday's high, forming another right shoulder. Today and tonight are opportunity for traders to get long (buy). Crude is forming an upside down H & S pattern - it projects up to 108-110.