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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments for 8/23/22

Sep Wheat - 1 Lower

Dec Corn - Steady to 1 Lower

Sep Beans - 1 to 2 Lower

Nov Beans - Steady

As Roger noted on last evening's email, Dec Corn gapped up on the open last night showing it's strength. Is it another break-away gap or just a run of the mill common gap that gets filled very quickly.

We will know by Friday or Monday as the 35-38 day cycle is upon us then. I am leaning towards yes - break-away gap - as the bulls are gathering steam.

As expected, Beans and Wheat were also strong today with Sep Beans being up +53 cents at one point during the day. Dec Corn ran into a little resistance in the $6.60 area and Sep Wheat stalled just above $8.00.

The gap last night in Dec Corn is clear down to 631 as corn was very strong (up almost 30 on the high). I don't think corn will correct 30 cents from here - more like 10-15 (the 645 area) will provide good buying support. The volume for the first 15 minutes today after the gap last night) was 200% the normal volume. The 4 hour volume was as high as the volume on July 5th When that important 570 low was marked.

As I write, I look back and forth at all the charts to spot something I might of missed previously. Knowing how huge the volume was today on Dec Corn's opening, I'm very confident last night's break-away gap and today's open is an urgent statement by the bulls - they are taking full charge again.

Nov Beans traded right up to the neckline of the big W formation at price 1475. This area is also an old triangle line that Nov Beans broke down from earlier then today traded back up to, as you will see on the chart. Support for Nov Soy should come in at 1438 - the red horizontal line going back to May 9th low. There was similar huge volume in Nov Beans today - see the far right volume bar at the bottom of chart.

With the 35-38 day cycle nearly here, my feeling for the Nov Beans and Dec Corn charts overall is that they will both correct a few cents as noted above (a shallow/sideways correction), trade sideways until Friday or Monday - then accelerate upwards at a faster clip. These markets have been in a building phase since Jul 5th - I'll call it phase 2 and it begins within a few days. It will be a phase where the energy built up for 2 months will begin expressing. Bulls taking charge.

I was looking back and the June 17th cycle date was sort of like this with a small correction up then it accelerated down.

Support for Sep Wheat comes in at 761 - this is part of a larger seasonal bottom forming - the trend should be up after this week.

A quick check of the Heating Oil chart - it has made a nice V bottom (looks like the letter V) between 3.15-3.70. Support here should be at 3.60

The 2 most important pieces of information on any chart are price action & volume - these 2 tell the tail today in Dec corn and Nov Beans.


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