Sep Wheat - Steady to 1 Lower
Sep Corn - 3 to 5 Higher
Dec Corn - Steady to 3 Higher
Nov Beans - 3 to 5 Lower
I was waiting for a gap up or a correction in Nov & Sep soybeans so we could begin looking at upside targets. We got our correction today - about 46% of the up move in Nov and 44% in the stronger Sep Bean contract. The bull spreads are working good in beans - you want to see this in a strong uptrend.
This means August goes up more on rally days than Sep & Nov and Sep also goes up more than the November contract. The bullish spreads also mean the Aug and Sep contracts go down less than the Nov Contract on down days like today.
Today was probably a good buying opportunity in beans and corn. The breakaway gap down below in corn and beans will most likely not get filled for now (weeks). This correction should not last more than 2/3 days in corn and beans.
It would be very negative if the breakaway gap did get filled now - that would essentially mean the market is completely undoing the start of this powerful uptrend which just began. That reminds me - today's correction seemed more geopolitical than weather/forecast related with Crude Oil also having a large down day - just 1 man's take on the matter.
Dec Corn has 2 targets over head - 2 gaps - 1 intraday at 683 and 1 daily at 729. The 729 area is also a rough projection based on the double bottom in Dec Corn. Back to Soybeans - Friday's high formed the right neckline of the head & shoulders / double bottom. Notice how the pattern looks like a big letter W. Everything pertinent is labeled on the November Soybean 4 hour chart for you to see below. The chart covers the months of June, July, and today's trade.
Notice the length of the up leg is $2.00 and Friday's high was $14.89. To arrive at the upside target of $16.89 you add the $2.00 on to the top of the neckline at $14.89 price. Before this target is reached, there is resistance at Friday's high and above that is a gap at $15.36.
Since crop conditions came out today little changed overall I thought about last year again and the current satellite map comparing the current vegetation health change from last year - comparing the planted acres map to the satellite gives the distinct sense things are worse this year overall. See what you think.