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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments for 7/5/22

Sep Wheat - 1 to 3 Lower


Sep Corn - 3 to 5 Higher

Dec Corn - 1 to 3 Higher


Aug Soybeans - Steady

Nov Soybeans - 7 to 10 Higher



The bloodbath continued today in new crop corn and beans with a gap down on the 8:30 open. Producers and funds are being forced to give up physical and liquidate futures positions.


Normally volume peaks on the June 30 report. However, today's first 3.5 hours of volume (8:30-12:00) exceeded all other days including last Thursday - report day. This tells me the low is in place or very near - everyone is being forced to sell/scared out of the market.


I have talked about high volume days before and that they can represent important swing lows in the market. I have never seen this much volume 2 days after a quarterly report.


It is kind of like when everybody and the general public is buying a market after it has rallied substantially - the top is near. Meanwhile the weekly charts have no damage at all - they are still rangebound near the yearly high.


The Dec Corn chart has corrected down today to within a few cents of a 50% correction of the entire up move from 2020. This is normally an important Fibonacci number - an area where markets tend to turn around from on a weekly timeframe


The point is, this is a huge correction spanning 2 years, not a daily pullback. What this may mean (don't know for sure) - this might not be simple a seasonal pullback. The swing low that's formed here (when confirmed possibly later in the week) could last for months. we have to see how it plays out.


The Nov Bean chart has corrected back to the old high from June 8th 2021. Old highs often function as support in an up trend. Dec Corn also took out (tested) the Feb 25th 2022 low today by a few cents - an important low after the blowoff top the day before.


As expected, corn crop conditions in the good and excellent category declined another 3% today. I expect a small gap up tonight and a test of today's gap within a few days. The gap down today could be an exhaustion gap (end of the run). We will know this by the end of this week or next Monday.


The corn and soybean markets can only ignore the "not so great" growing conditions for so long with the small (especially in beans) ending stocks. As I mentioned Sunday the funds will eventually have to add risk premium to price.







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