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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments for 7/26/22

Sep Wheat - Steady


Sep Corn - Steady to 1 Lower

Dec Corn - Steady to 1 Higher


Nov Beans - Steady to 1 Lower


Both Dec Corn and Nov Soybeans most likely experienced a breakaway gap last night. The gap was confirmed when this morning's trade sold off to test the top of the gap then fund buying reversed price back up.


This type of gap which can't be filled in a timely manner is a powerful signal that demand is so strong price leaps up from the prior day's high price and over even higher prices - the trade skips over several cents - kind of like a deer leaping over a stream or fence (to get some place in a hurry). No trader wanted to sell until price was 9 cents higher in Nov Beans and 8 cents higher in Dec Corn.


Breakaway gaps are a distinct signal that a market is at the start of a new trend (up in this case) - a strong conviction on the part of the buyers that further upside action is immanent - a sense of urgency. Corn or Soybeans or both could see a midpoint gap along the way - this would roughly tell us that price is about halfway to the top. See the double bottom and gap on Nov Beans here:



Although Sep Wheat did not experience this same gap, it also appears to have formed a solid bottom - triple low. The difference with wheat is the buying is less urgent so the uptrend will be more moderate.


Sep Crude Update: still trying to form an upside down head & shoulders with neckline resistance around 100. If oil can penetrate that it should be able to run a bit towards 105 and even higher afterwards. In the meantime, something is holding it down and the buyers need to overcome this weight, whatever it is, for higher prices.