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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments for 7/18/22

Sep Wheat - 4 to 6 Lower

Sep Corn - Steady

Dec Corn - Steady to 2 Lower

Nov Beans - Steady to 1 Lower

The good/excellent ratings for corn were unchanged this week. However the poor/very poor increased in corn by 1 %. The GE for soybeans went down 1 % and the P/VP went up 1 %.

I don't know if these ratings will matter to the corn and soybeans markets yet, but I imagine the 1-10 day forecast has more influence at this juncture and it remains too hot/too dry - somewhat threatening.

November Soybeans broke out to the upside today from last week's rangebound trade and settled up almost +38 cents to 1380. I expect the up move to continue this week with a first target at 1438.50 (small W neckline).

After that there is an unfilled gap overhead at 1536.50 which will act like a magnet. Please look at the Nov Bean chart here - I have labeled many features which hopefully you can see.

The US Dollar was down for the second day in a row after making a spike high last Thursday. Hopefully this currency action will support the grains and oilseeds.

Here is the soybean planted map along with 2 of the vegetative health maps for you to contrast & compare. To me it seems the corn (from yesterday's maps) is a little more stressed than beans according to these maps, but it is difficult to quantify.

Sep Crude Oil Update: I expect crude to trade up to the neckline at 102 tomorrow. I don't think it will just blow through 102 and keep going (but it could if strong enough). What seems more reasonable is a pullback to 98, maybe farther to 94.

We will have to wait and see what tomorrow brings. What I am waiting to see - does oil capitulate and reverse back down directly at the 102 neckline or does it trade above 102 slightly and consolidate on top of the neckline? One of these 2 scenarios are what I'm needing to see in order to differentiate. Please look at these different levels on the Sep Crude chart.


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