Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments for 6/30/22
Sep Wheat - Steady to 1 Higher
Sep Corn - 1 to 3 Higher
Dec Corn - 4 to 6 Higher
Aug Beans - 1 to 3 Higher
Nov Beans - 7 to 10 Higher
The report was bullish beans and neutral for corn and the sellers stayed in control all day in corn. These 2 markets are way out of balance with the Dec Corn selling vs. the bean prices.
As Roger highlighted on the USDA planting numbers on the email, the soybean acreage is is very bullish - USDA said 88.35 million acres for beans. That is about 1.6 million fewer acres than the March estimate and half a million below (outside) the entire range of estimates.
Historically it is very rare for a USDA quarterly number to not even be near the range of estimates. It is even more rare for the market to not respond in kind (bullishly) - I'm just saying, hold on a minute, this huge imbalance (between corn & beans) will sort itself out.
Corn could have easily rallied 25 cents today - because the 645 area was solid support the market knew there would be an abundance of sell stops below and the sellers took advantage - the traders had 1 more day to take longs out of Dec Corn.
The other feature which stands out is the old crop/new crop corn spread. It made a new high today of +126.75, 10 above the early May high and has gone parabolic from +35 to + 126.75 (91 cents) since June 2nd. This is telling us the summertime inventory of corn is very low - this will make any threat to new crop supply magnified and end users will have to buy.
The Dec Corn chart made 3 swing lows after the Feb 24th high - they are highlighted with red arrows. I believe the sellers hunted down these lows today to gain more capitulation energy.
August Crude Oil Update: sold off to 105.10 (below the 106.50 mark). I expect an attempt to rally up towards the 110.50 area tomorrow. Next week oil should come back down to 105, then rally back to 114 - lots of opportunity.