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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments for 10/3/22

Dec Wheat - 5 to 7 Higher


Dec Corn - Steady to 1 Lower


Nov Beans - 1 Lower


Comments from Saturday: "After a back and forth week, I maintain that the big picture (macroeconomic) is continuing to turn from a risk off (selling) environment to a risk on (buying). Even though the S&P made a lower low yesterday, the VIX could not make a higher high- indicating the fear level (selling) is still decreasing and strong buyers are entering the market. No change to the new downtrend in the US Dollar and Dec Gold appears to have bottomed out in the last week after a 6 month down leg which began on March 8th."


It appears the risk on ship has completed it's turn and was full on today.


The US Dollar had a fourth down day in-a-row today - a good sign for the new downtrend. Stocks and Precious metals were up huge today with DOW futures up +775, Gold up +$36-37, and Silver up +$1.721 !! You read that correctly


Silver's price moves similarly to the grains in that it is $50 per cent move - therefore, the silver move would be like the grains being up +1,721 cents on the day ! I have never known silver to move this much in 1 day. Hope it's not a sign of hyperinflation to come.


Nov Beans and Dec Corn were up a little today while Dec Wheat corrected 9-10 cents. Support for Dec Wheat is between today's low (908.50) and 895. The Nov Soybean market tested Friday's lows (1363.25) with a low print today at 1361.25 - after the 8:30 AM CDT low, beans rallied to about 1375.25.


The odds still favor (with a higher degree of certainty after today's trade) beans not being able to close the break-away gap roughly 13 cents from today's low. I expect a move up to 1430 then a fairly deep correction to 1390 afterwards. I have no idea if this will occur this week or next.


The main point in Nov Beans is - that once the trading range is eventually cleared (1508.75 highs) they should have a lot of buying pressure from the weekly chart - keep this in the back of your mind - big picture.


Nov Beans is telling us something by not being able to fill the gap a few cents down, because as you know gaps are magnets, unfinished business - they beg to be filled - the underlying bull market in beans is still alive.


667 is now support in Dec Corn and 700 is resistance - I do not expect a huge move before the Oct 12th report, but there is always the outlying possibility.


Nov Crude Oil ran into some light resistance at 84.56 today, but I believe 89-90 is a reasonable target nearterm - today's backfill should be short lived. Here is the updated crude chart.