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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments for 10/11/22

Dec Wheat - 1 to 2 Higher


Dec Corn - Steady to 1 Higher


Nov Beans - 2 to 3 Higher


Tomorrow is the October USDA crop estimate. I believe the trade expects a reduction in production for corn and beans, but I don't know by how much. What I do know is I always feel like a deer in the headlights when these reports come around.


The Dec Corn and Wheat charts are both in an upsloping channel, consistently marking higher highs and lows - the trend is up. Yesterday's high in Dec Wheat is light resistance at 949.75 and upside targets are 1035 and 1085. Today's trade tested support at 902-898, and settled near 901.25. The lower neckline comes in around 855 if things get ugly.


706.5 marked Dec Corn's high yesterday. Above that you have 734 and 749 for upside objectives. The nearest swing low marked last Friday is 671.5 - this should provide support. Today's last trade was 693. Here is an updated Dec Corn chart - notice the upsloping nature of the price action.


Nov Crude Oil Update: Oil continued its selloff to a low of 87.91 today, where there was some fund buying interest above the 86.50 support. Crude marked a triple 3 pattern on the intraday charts indicating strong demand there.


The jury is still out as to whether the bears will be able to push price down to the 86.50 level. If I am looking to get long/buy again, I am probably putting a half or third of the position on this evening - between 89.0 and 88.30 (in case it can't sell anymore), then sitting tight to see what happens. The idea is to put the rest of the position on if Nov Crude is able to sell down to 86.50-86.00. Here is a blowup of the crude chart - 1 hour bars.


Although the US Dollar was up again today, it was by a small amount and the daily bar was very close to a Doji bar. The odds slightly favor (about 65%) a reversal back down tomorrow because of the Doji - let's see what happens.


Most buying attempts in the stock indices have been met with heavy selling today and yesterday - we will have to see more if they are trying to forge a bottom.