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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 9/11/23

Dec Wheat - Steady


Dec Corn - Steady to 1 Higher


Nov Beans - Steady to plus/minus 1


December Wheat washed out the inverted head & shoulders pattern Friday and today, and marked a third lower low on very high volume. This is the most 1 hour volume in 8 trading days, since December became front month.


Yes it is true that triple swing lows or highs are not very reliable standing on there own, but wheat has been attempting to forge a bottom for over 3 weeks, resting on weekly support. Price has been grinding back and forth between 615-620 and the 585 vicinity.


If you will look at the lower window on the 1 hour December Wheat chart, you will see that today's volume bar outdoes the rest of the chart. Therefore, it looks like capitulation volume to me - the last (or very near last) wave of longs giving up, being stopped out, etc.


The shorts have been in control for months and months, when this occurs, the side that's winning tends to become overconfident, even feel invincible - this is part of understanding the psychology of trading.


Nothing lasts forever, so eventually all the sellers who went short between 610 and 585, will have a price to pay. Like the long time commodity columnist who Roger referenced today, it sounded like he wouldn't want to be short in wheat.


Here is the updated 1 hour continuation wheat chart. The upper and lower blue lines are parallel with each other - this is a common trait on charts that traders rely on for support or resistance. See today's volume bar at the bottom.


Soybean Oil update:

December Bean Oil has been in a sideways corrective wave since it marked a swing high on July 24th. This area is between 2 levels of support and resistance from some older triangle lines that you'll see on the daily chart.


I have also labeled the Elliot count for you. The current sideways trade has 7 legs or A-B-C-X-A-B-C, so far. Also, it looks like soyoil marked a tiny green Doji bar today, indicating that the buyers are going to make another run higher and try to get leg 3 moving.


You will also notice that the triangle lines are coming to a pinch point which indicates a building of energy. Check out the now December contract of daily soybean oil.


Heating Oil update:

I've been told that HO mimics diesel fuel fairly well. The October contract is the front month currently, and it has been up trending since the lows from May. It recently broke through resistance at the 3.2000 level, and looks as though it wants higher prices, with 4.000 in the crosshairs.


The current price action looks like a running A-B-C correction, that also marked 3 higher highs. This is probably a good example of when a triple high level will not produce a selloff. Heating oil may come down to test the 3.2000 level again, but I suspect the buyers will defend there, if it does.


Here is the updated October daily Heating Oil chart. You will notice the 2 blue supply/demand balance lines above, with a range from 4.000 to about 5.000.


We will re-visit corn and beans tomorrow.

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