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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 8/7/23

Sep Wheat - Steady to 1 Lower

Dec Corn - 1 to 2 Higher

Nov Beans - Steady to 1 Lower

September Soybeans nailed the midway gap target on last Monday's low, then traded sideways the remainder of the week forming a contracting triangle. Therefore, the intraday gap down last night is most likely an exhaustion gap.

This indicates that the selling has likely exhausted itself - one more push down for the funds to take out buy stops and gobble up more longs for themselves. Also, this mornings opening trade volume was the most for the 8:30 bar in almost 2 weeks.

The triangle that formed in beans last week created a price target - you measure the long side of the triangle and then tack that number on to the breakdown price to get the answer. High volume on a likely exhaustion gap that opened with tremendous volume and mailed a triangle target makes a good case.

The target price was 1338 and the actual low was 1337. Here is the September Bean 15 minute chart showing the triangle target, gap and volume.

November Beans also gapped down last night (intraday - 30 min chart). It made a visible measuring gap last Sunday night, so today's gap is likely an exhaustion gap they often go together. In addition, there is a major support level 5 cents down from the close today - red horizontal line.

When the grains gap down on Sunday night in general, that day usually marks the chart high or low for the week. Last week it was the high for the week, so today's gap is probably the low for the week.

Several pieces of evidence put together - Check out the November daily chart. Remember, we are looking for another impulse leg up to begin soon on the daily charts.

Today's 24 cent higher green bar today in September Wheat should confirm last Thursday's low for the correction. Maybe the war news has finally overcome the shorts?

As a reminder, The C leg low was unable to test the A low point last week. This indicates strength. Here is the updated September Wheat chart. Check out today's big green bar.

September Wheat's strength today probably helped support December Corn, as corn sold off about 6 cents on the session open, then bought straight back up all in the first 90 minutes of trading.

Then, corn remained above last week's lows for the remainder of the day, and last traded near the highs for the day. Considering today's price action (V bottom with high volume), last week's lows, the close, and wheat's strength, there is a good argument for some buying to finally come in to the corn market.

The Sunday gap down model of high or low for the week applies in corn, as well.

Here is the 15 minute December Corn so you can see the details I am talking about. Also notice the high volume bar at the open and low (4th bar) - anytime you get very high volume other than the open or close, it is generally significant, signaling selling exhaustion.


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