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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 8/17/23

Sep Wheat - Steady to 1 Lower


Dec Corn - Steady


Nov Beans - Steady to 1 Lower


We have been looking at the wheat continuation chart every week. Today, we are analyzing the September contract of Chicago wheat. The chief difference is the May 31st swing low.


On the continuation chart, this May swing low occurred during the July Wheat contract, because July represented the front month in May and June. The September contract actually tested the May 31st low today.


There was no outstanding volume in September or December Wheat today, either for the entire day or on any of the smaller intraday timeframes. Therefore, even though the September contract marked a double bottom today, my confidence is only about 55% that a rally will begin directly from here.


This is in stark contrast to the high confidence in December corn. We will need to see Friday's trade in wheat to get some confidence. I do believe the fund bulls will be buying now, but the issue is, have the sturdy bears exhausted themselves yet?


Even though the fundamentals appear bullish in wheat, the big money controls the show. Sometimes, the bulls have to become completely wiped out in a downtrend before an uptrend can start.


Check out the double bottom (W) in Sep wheat.


The December Corn Bulls had a successful day today, closing up +5.00 cents on the day. Slow and steady is constructive action when you are looking for a rally to begin because this is more stable.


Like building a foundation for something, so the odds of it collapsing are very small. Also, the last trade today was only a few ticks from closing the intraday gap. I would like to see 493 achieved tomorrow.


Notice how after 10 AM CDT, yesterday's highs held support. That support is 484.5. This should hold. The reason I missed support by a couple of pennies yesterday was that I counted the first up impulse wave incorrectly. 1 up was not complete yet.


I originally counted 479.75 as a complete impulse, yet corn was not finished. Here's the 30 min December Corn chart again - notice the counting.


November Soybeans successfully broke out from the triangle today, closing directly over the top. Beans may consolidate more before a more significant rally, but the foundation is already in place.


Support could be as low as 1320 (middle of triangle) if the bears need another little run. Here is today's 2 hour November Bean chart again.


October Live Cattle have not been able to re-test the highs since the last posting. Cattle look to be forming a double top (M) with a lower right neckline or what they call an A-B-C top, where C is lower than A - a sign of general weakness.


This type of counting is not related to Elliot wave by the way. Cattle will need a close below the B point at 178 to confirm the top. Then, the first target will be from 172 to 170.5. Check out the updated October Live Cattle chart,


113 degrees ambient temperature in Wichita Falls, Texas today - a hot airmass!





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