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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 8/15/23

Sep Wheat - Steady to 1 Lower


Dec Corn - Steady


Nov Beans - 3 to 4 Lower


I have been working with Roger and his wonderful team for about a year and one half. On every occasion since then, when the middle of the trading session volume was greater than the volume during the first 15 minutes with an accompanying spike down where buying support should be in corn and wheat, that day or the next was the final low and that low was within a few cents of the low price printed on the high volume bar.


For example, an intraday low was made on Monday on the 10 AM bar with bigger volume. The final low could be on Tuesday 3 to 5 cents lower.


The time I remember best were the 2 lows printed July 2022. One or more of the intraday volume bars after about 8:45 or 9:00 CDT was greater than the opening volume bar.


As I remember, the heavy volume bar was maybe 15 to 30% more contracts traded than at the opening volume bar. Today, December Corn marked 2 volume bars, neither on the open or close, that were the greatest number of contracts traded - the 9:30 to 9:35 5 minute bar and the 1:00 to 1:05 5 minute bar - under normal conditions, the highest 5 minute volume bar (besides the opening bar) is the 1:10 to 1:15 5 minute bar.


I was able to watch corn live at the 1:00 PM bar. The trading ladder has all the limit orders working at every price. On any given normal trading day, the greatest number of contracts on 1 price located on the buy or sell side is 200 to 300.


The 476.5 price had 1100 buy orders working and the 475.00 level held over 2000 contracts - fund whales waiting. These numbers are 4 to 10 times the average. Seeing this gave me more confidence that what I saw at the 9:30 volume bar was being defended by these big money entities.


This information may be boring or overly technical, but it is hard evidence to the chart analyst. You will see these details on the December corn 5 minute chart. The opening bar traded about 3500 contracts, the 9:30 bar traded about 13,500 contracts and the 1:00 bar swapped about 9000 contracts. Also outstanding, is the 9:00 bar traded more contracts than the first 5 minutes after the report last Friday. Report days typically have monster volume directly after their release.


To be clear, total volume on the day was nothing to write home about. However, this does not alter our case as it is these smaller details that matter on a day like this. As I mentioned yesterday, 477 (price) was the 9:00 bar. This afternoon, corn leaked down to 473.75, which is within the margin of error, and pre-opening bids are sitting at 475 for the moment - see this on the ladder below.


I have never witnessed this much disparity between the opening volume and the mid-day volume. Could this be an exclamation point on the certainty of these events? Maybe.


Nothing is completely risk free in life, but these are good signs.


The first 5 minute December Corn chart shows Friday's trading session so you can compare the report day volume, and the 2nd one is zoomed in more so you can align the price bars with the volume bars with your own eyes.


After the 2 charts will be the trading ladder so you can see what it looks like with contracts at various levels - this snapshot is between trade sessions, so it's static. The current bid/offer is up +1.25 from the close - this is where I obtain the opening calls.



December Corn trade ladder:




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