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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 8/1/23

Sep Wheat - Steady

Dec Corn - Steady to 1 Higher

Nov Beans - 3 to 4 Higher

September Wheat sold off another 13 cents today, closing at 652.75. Wheat tagged an up trending support line on it's low today, where the fund buyers showed up to defend.

This blue line is most likely the last line of defense for the bulls, meaning that I believe an up leg should spring from here. If not, the low to the left is 622 (labeled A), and this area will be another area that's bought, if necessary.

Today marks 5 straight days (red bars) of selling off - therefore, this market is extremely oversold. Here is today's daily September Wheat chart - notice how price reversed directly on the blue line.

Wheat dragged corn down 5 cents, and the retracement now stands at 74%. I still do not believe December Corn is going to test the 480 level where the last swing low is.

I know everybody is getting tired of the corn correction, but because the selloff is so deep, the rally will have more energy and go higher than it would have on a more shallow correction.

Check out the September Corn intraday chart - note that current prices are sitting atop the channel from early July.

I believe soybeans have the most bullish technical set up out of all 3 grains. Similar to Corn, but stronger, September Beans are winding up like a slingshot because the backfill was so deep - almost 130 cents high to low.

Also, a new, higher neckline was created and this current correction is the new right shoulder. Therefore, the inverted head and shoulders is bigger and thus marks a higher price target.

To recap, the June 21st high was the end of the first impulse (1) and beans has been in a running, A-B-C correction since then. Running means that C didn't selloff as far as the A leg, and indicates too much strength - the chart was trying to run up during a correction because buyers are too eager.

Finally, and again because of the depth of this selloff, the weekly chart has created more supply/demand up pressure. Check out today's 2 hour September Bean chart.

Here is the daily September chart so you can see the larger inverted head & shoulders.


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