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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 7/5/23

Sep Wheat - 1 Lower


Dec Corn - 2 to 3 Higher


Nov Beans - Steady to 2 Lower


While December Corn did print a new low for the move today, it managed a close just above unchanged. If you look at the last 3 bars on the right, you will see 3 slightly lower lows.


And while triple lows are not as reliable as double lows, I like the structure of December Corn here. It may mark 1 lower low tomorrow (by 2-4 cents), but that should be it.


As mentioned previously, I believe corn is molding a double bottom that should eventually get going and rally back to the 630 level. My reasoning on this is the good support and the rule of symmetry on charts - straight down on the left should yield straight up on the right.


This rule is so because there are no significant daily bumps or pullbacks on the left, so there is very little friction. There are a couple of areas in which the market may pause, however, and I will point them out on the December Corn chart below.


The 62% retracement level of Big2 held nicely today in September Wheat, and it even rallied 31.75 cents today. I can't tell for certain, but this wheat backfill is fairly straight down and it's only one leg.


Therefore, we may see a rally to about 712 (the 62%), then another leg down to test the 640-630 area before another leg up that eclipses the swing high at 756.75. Markets in general move in a 3 or 5 wave structure, rarely a stand alone 1 legger.

Check out today's Sep Wheat.


I want you to see the 5 smaller waves up that creates a new (1) within this larger big 3 up wave in August Soybeans. Then, today and Monday, the chart is creating a small pullback (2) which is also within Big3.


Next, we should see a small 3 that is within big 3. To summarize, we are talking about 3 degrees of Elliot waves here in Big 3. Big 1 only had 1 smaller degree count. This information then tells us that Big 3 is going to be longer and have more extensions than Big 1 was.


Here is today's August bean chart - you will need to zoom in to see all the numbers.


A couple of you requested an update in the cattle market. I appreciate your asking because I get tunnel focus on the grains this time of year. Thank you.


The August live cattle chart looks like it is forming a possible topping pattern on the daily chart. It marked a high of 178.1 on June 7th, then a swing low of 168.1 on the solstice and now cattle are rallying again to attempt to test the recent high.


However today, cattle sold off just shy of the high. If it can't buy up to this most recent high of 177.35, then you could project a selling target to about the 158 level, if 168 is taken out below. This is because the June 7th to 21st high to low is 10 points in length.


There is also a possibility that August cattle finds strong buying near the 168-166 range, so then this action would be a correction that could rally to new highs. The cattle market in general, has been in a very strong uptrend for 3.5 years now. How long will it last and price remain above 171.65 (the 2014 live cattle high)?


We don't know for sure. This area in cattle will eventually be a good hedging opportunity. Check out the August daily first, then weekly cattle below that.



Feeder cattle just recently tested the 2014 high of 245.2, and could be in the process of marking a big double top, especially if corn is going to muster a rally from here. I will post the feeder charts tomorrow.





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