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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 7/26/23

Sep Wheat - 2 to 3 Higher

Dec Corn - Steady to 1 Higher

Nov Beans - Steady to 1 Lower

September Corn had to prove me wrong with regards to the Elliot wave counting of this up impulse wave. To start, there is a 1-2-3-4-5 completed wave/leg, and because the last 2 days correction has traded lower that the 3 wave high, we know the first wave is done.

This does not mean that I think the rally is over. Rather, I'm going into detail for folks who want to learn this stuff.

Today's low prices, at 536.75, should be the end of the A-B-C correction, which is 2 in the larger magnitude wave. Now (any minute), the 3rd larger wave up should begin. You will see on the corn chart that the 1st leg was 90 cents.

This new impulse should be an extension of 90 cents. Let's say for example that the new up leg extends the first wave by a factor of 1.5 times. In reality, it could extend any where in the range of 1.23 to 1.78 times.

Therefore 90 X 1.5 = 135. 135 + 536.75 = 671.75. That is interesting because this price is close to my first upside December Corn target. Here is the 2 hour September Corn chart followed by the continuation (Dec) chart for perspective.

See the support line labeled on the chart below.

August and September Soybeans broke out to the upside today, on the daily charts. August was up +30.75 and the September contract was up +21.25, while November was up only 3 ticks. This inversion is accelerating, so we know that the demand side is pushing.

All this demand on top of probable worsening bean conditions in the field. Hang on. If tonight gaps up, this will be a break-away gap as well as a measuring gap. If this happens, I will detail the implications tomorrow. Check out September Soybean daily.

September Wheat had a 40 cent correction today, as part of the intraday A-B-C. Today should have been the completion of C. Therefore, fund buying should support prices tomorrow.

Wheat closed between 2 support lines on the daily chart, but the fact that it overshot the first line does not concern me because traders love to overshoot support and resistance in order to attract more sellers in this case.

Here is the daily September Wheat chart. Notice the amount of time these support lines cover. This implies the support level is more meaningful.

September Eurocurrency Update:

After an upside breakout on July 12th, it rallied a few days, stalled out, then tested the breakout level yesterday. The Euro buyers came back out today and painted a modest up day.

It is healthy for markets to test old levels. This is how energy for the primary trend is built and sustained. Remember, the eurocurrency trend is up, therefore the US Dollar trend is down. This price action will continue to support commodities that are traded to other countries.

Here is the updated September Eurocurrency daily chart.


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