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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 7/17/23

Sep Wheat - Steady to 1 Higher

Dec Corn - Steady

Nov Beans - 1 to 2 Lower

After gapping higher and trading higher all the way to 526.5 overnight, December Corn put in a correction today. If this is a new impulse up, which I think it is, the rally higher is # 1 and the backfill today is #2.

Some folks use astrology to help guide in the markets. I have not studied this, but was reading on New Agtalk that a fellow said we have a new moon today and this means corn will correct or go sideways for 3 days.

I have no idea on this, just passing the information on. We are looking at the 1 hour December Corn chart today so you can see some detail. The close from July 11th should provide buying support at 501.5.

There is a high to the left that is marked, because bumps to the left tend to cause bumps on the right. I wasn't anticipating the correction from 526.5, so we will see how it trades.

September Wheat did correct today where you would expect - an old high to the left at about 680 provided the incentive. Wheat has also been marking a new impulse rally since July 12th-13th named #1 and today is #2 backfill.

I heard the grain corridor deal was not renewed. This should be bullish in wheat and spill over somewhat in the corn market. However, today it appears the traders bought the rumor and sold the actual news (fact).

Let's watch how they trade tonight. Here is the 8 hour September Wheat chart - notice how today traded above the B swing point and then corrected down. This is how/why corrections usually occur. There was also an old resistance trendline that provided a reason for the selling pullback.

November Soybeans backfilled some today after buying up +15 cents and touching the neckline in the overnight markets - still closed in the positive. Since the June 28th low below 1260, price has gradually marked higher highs and lows.

You will see this on the November Soybean daily chart between the right shoulder and right neckline. We have several bullish technical factors going on in beans.

I don't know exactly on the timing, but any day now the November beans should breakout above the neckline and trade higher. Check out the chart.

August Live Cattle update:

This chart has finally revealed itself as far as what's going on with the bears and bulls. The pattern is called an inclining or rising wedge. It is similar looking to an ascending triangle, but very different in what it means.

Instead of a flat top triangle, it is made up of 2 trendlines that converge on one another - higher highs and lows, but it narrows towards the right top. Unlike the triangle, inclining wedges are usually bearish. You can see by the pattern that with each successive high, the bulls are running out of steam.

I expect that there is a very good chance the high prints are in or very near in cattle. There is a small triple 3 (top) within the wedge. However, standing on its own, triple tops are not very reliable. Check out the daily August Live Cattle.

Here is a definition from Investopedia.

Rising Wedge Stock Pattern

A rising wedge is often considered a bearish chart pattern that points to a reversal after a bull trend. A rising wedge is believed to signal an imminent breakout to the downside. Like other wedges, the pattern begins wide towards the bottom and contracts as the price moves higher and the trading range narrows.


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