Sorry for the delay folks. Power and internet went down here in Texas at 5:30 CDT. Came back on at 10:30.
From yesterday's July Wheat comments:
"The low today of 613.25 should be a good low that the next small impulse up can spring from - this level is almost at the 50%." After drifting 2 pennies lower overnight, the wheat fund bulls managed a rally to close at 625.75. This is a good start for the next leg up.
I will be looking for the 680 to 685 area first, and then 716 probably next week sometime. Support comes in between 618 and 613 for tomorrow. The daily price limit is 60 cents for July Wheat.
Tomorrow is a wildcard - limit up would be around 685.75. There will at minimum, probably be a lot of volatility tomorrow. Check out the new chart.
I don't know for sure, but corn and soybeans are both due for a range expansion day - the release of built up energy. Is it a coincidence that tomorrow is report day? No one knows how the trade will react to the USDA numbers on Friday, but these reports from June to September normally bring big days up or down.
There is some overhead resistance near the 645 level in July Corn and support is 600. The close was 609 today and limit is 45 cents for corn. Limit up would be 654. Here is today's corn daily chart.
As stated above, July Soybeans is due for a range expansion day, probably higher, but nobody knows for sure. For every sideways/back and forth trading day, the energy stored becomes greater. Eventually it must pop.
We can also say that the daily trend is up, therefore any big day should be up, but that is difficult to say going into a report. Targets higher are 1405-1410, 1421, and 1457. Support is 1348.
Tomorrow is also Friday in a weather market - another wildcard. How will traders want to be positioned for Sunday night? My feeling is if he report causes big buying, there will also be a large pullback which is a higher low from today's low.
The risk is always higher when you have all these conditions aligned - dryness, geopolitical, investor money pouring into virtually all market assets (equities also)
Use your imagination. By now, many of you can probably see some areas to the left which could be places for backfilling. For example, a rally that turns around at 1420 would probably pullback to 1380. 1440 back to 1400.
Here is the daily bean continuation. Look at those 4 recent sideways bars.